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Happy Valley · 2023-10-04 · 14:20

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-04 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. COPARTNER AMBITION, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 1, with LYRICAL MOTION second and RIGHTEOUS ARION third. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.26
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 COPARTNER AMBITION B2/TT 1.09.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum 4 2.7 1
2 11 LYRICAL MOTION TT H Bentley · C Fownes 3 8.5 1
3 1 RIGHTEOUS ARION H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 2 3.5 1
4 2 JOY COMING CP/TT M L Yeung · K W Lui 12 19.0 2-1/4
5 10 H Z TOURBILLON TT M Chadwick · T P Yung 10 24.0 3-1/4
6 3 WATCH BUDDY CP A Badel · P F Yiu 5 9.1 3-1/2
7 9 TELECOM SPIRIT B L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 9 50.0 4-1/2
8 6 LEAN MASTER TT A Atzeni · C H Yip 7 97.0 5
9 8 TACTICAL COMMAND K C Leung · M Newnham 11 127.0 5
10 12 MR MAJESTIC CP/SR/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte 6 13.0 5-1/4
11 7 MELBOURNE HALL B/XB B Avdulla · D J Hall 1 14.0 5-1/2
12 5 AFFIRM TT C L Chau · P F Yiu 8 16.0 6-1/2
0 UNISON H Bowman · J Richards

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. COPARTNER AMBITION2. LYRICAL MOTION+1L3. RIGHTEOUS ARION+1L4. JOY COMING+2.25L5. H Z TOURBILLON+3.25L6. WATCH BUDDY+3.5L7. TELECOM SPIRIT+4.5L8. LEAN MASTER+5L9. TACTICAL COMMAND+5L10. MR MAJESTIC+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick COPARTNER AMBITION (23.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 COPARTNER AMBITION 23.4% 4.27 1
2 1 RIGHTEOUS ARION 15.0% 6.67 3
3 3 WATCH BUDDY 14.7% 6.80 6
4 11 LYRICAL MOTION 12.3% 8.10 2
5 2 JOY COMING 9.2% 10.91 4
6 12 MR MAJESTIC 8.5% 11.77 10
7 7 MELBOURNE HALL 4.5% 22.24 11
8 5 AFFIRM 4.3% 23.26 12
9 9 TELECOM SPIRIT 4.3% 23.35 7
10 10 H Z TOURBILLON 2.4% 41.20 5
11 8 TACTICAL COMMAND 0.8% 124.08 9
12 6 LEAN MASTER 0.6% 173.60 8
COPARTNER AMBITION — wonRIGHTEOUS ARIONWATCH BUDDYLYRICAL MOTIONJOY COMINGMR MAJESTICMELBOURNE HALLAFFIRMTELECOM SPIRITH Z TOURBILLONTACTICAL COMMANDLEAN MASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 27

PLACE

1 15.5

4 11.5

11 27

QUINELLA

4,11 108.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 22

1,11 49.5

4,11 43

FORECAST

4,11 142

TIERCE

4,11,1 499

TRIO

1,4,11 106

FIRST 4

1,2,4,11 308

QUARTET

4,11,1,2 5,733

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

1/4 48

1/11 21