Happy Valley · 2023-10-04 · 13:18
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-04 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CAPITAL DELIGHT, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by DH, with LUCKY ARCHANGEL second and EXCELLENT PEERS third. The 3.4 favourite ALLGREEKTOME finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | CAPITAL DELIGHT TT 1.09.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 7 | 16.0 | DH |
| 1 | 7 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL B/XB 1.09.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · F C Lor | Y L Chung | F C Lor | 4 | 14.0 | DH |
| 3 | 1 | EXCELLENT PEERS H/XB H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 2 | 8.5 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | ALLGREEKTOME CP1/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 8 | 3.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | TOMODACHI KOKOROE H2/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 1 | 7.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | RED ELEGANCE XB/TT K Teetan · J Richards | K Teetan | J Richards | 3 | 3.9 | 2 |
| 7 | 4 | BEAUTY GLORY H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 5 | 6.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | EURO ROCKS TT L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 6 | 8.5 | 7 |
| — | 2 | KEEP YOU WARM M Chadwick · M Newnham | M Chadwick | M Newnham | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | TOMODACHI KOKOROE | 27.2% | 3.67 | 5 |
| 2 | 3 | ALLGREEKTOME | 19.2% | 5.22 | 4 |
| 3 | 8 | RED ELEGANCE | 15.8% | 6.33 | 6 |
| 4 | 1 | EXCELLENT PEERS | 11.0% | 9.11 | 3 |
| 5 | 7 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL | 8.7% | 11.54 | 1 |
| 6 | 4 | BEAUTY GLORY | 7.9% | 12.64 | 7 |
| 7 | 6 | EURO ROCKS | 7.8% | 12.79 | 8 |
| 8 | 5 | CAPITAL DELIGHT | 2.5% | 40.77 | 1 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 83
7 74
PLACE
1 22.5
5 43
7 44.5
QUINELLA
5,7 1,294
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 175
1,7 127.5
5,7 314.5
FORECAST
5,7 1,209
7,5 1,315
TIERCE
5,7,1 7,900
7,5,1 8,356
TRIO
1,5,7 2,163
FIRST 4
1,3,5,7 1,074
QUARTET
5,7,1,3 18,178
7,5,1,3 18,155
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
4/2/5 3,438
4/2/7 1,113
4TH DOUBLE
2/5 386
2/7 311.5