Happy Valley · 2023-10-18 · 11:50
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-18 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. TATTENHAM, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by P C Ng, won by NOSE, with HAPPY TRIO second and SIGHT HERO third. The 2.2 favourite RIGHTEOUS ARION finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | TATTENHAM H-/P- 1.10.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · P C Ng | A Hamelin | P C Ng | 1 | 74.0 | NOSE |
| 2 | 8 | HAPPY TRIO B H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 2 | 5.6 | NOSE |
| 3 | 2 | SIGHT HERO B-/BO1/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 7 | 8.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | HERO STAR XB-/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 12 | 20.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | RIGHTEOUS ARION H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 6 | 2.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | HAPPY SOUL CP/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 3 | 7.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | JOY OF SPRING TT B Avdulla · C Fownes | B Avdulla | C Fownes | 10 | 9.1 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | STORMTROUPER XB/E2 M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 8 | 15.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | DOUBLE WIN XB1/TT1 K De Melo · T P Yung | K De Melo | T P Yung | 9 | 16.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | MAGIC TRAVELLER P-/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 11 | 44.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | BAYVIEW STAR B H T Mo · K W Lui | H T Mo | K W Lui | 4 | 142.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | HINOKAMI KAGURA XB-/H1/TT K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 5 | 82.0 | 25-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | RIGHTEOUS ARION | 28.0% | 3.57 | 5 |
| 2 | 5 | JOY OF SPRING | 14.9% | 6.70 | 7 |
| 3 | 8 | HAPPY TRIO | 14.7% | 6.82 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | HAPPY SOUL | 13.5% | 7.43 | 6 |
| 5 | 2 | SIGHT HERO | 10.5% | 9.57 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | DOUBLE WIN | 4.7% | 21.14 | 9 |
| 7 | 3 | HERO STAR | 3.9% | 25.66 | 4 |
| 8 | 9 | STORMTROUPER | 3.8% | 26.65 | 8 |
| 9 | 7 | HINOKAMI KAGURA | 3.2% | 30.87 | 12 |
| 10 | 11 | MAGIC TRAVELLER | 1.4% | 72.10 | 10 |
| 11 | 10 | TATTENHAM | 1.0% | 99.14 | 1 |
| 12 | 12 | BAYVIEW STAR | 0.5% | 203.57 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 749.5
PLACE
2 21.5
8 20
10 130.5
QUINELLA
8,10 1,922.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,8 60
2,10 472
8,10 406.5
FORECAST
10,8 4,176
TIERCE
10,8,2 28,336
TRIO
2,8,10 2,747
FIRST 4
2,3,8,10 8,852
QUARTET
10,8,2,3 296,547
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,12/2,8,10 1,163,931
2ND DOUBLE
12/8 81
12/10 5,621