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Happy Valley · 2023-10-18 · 12:50

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1200m Course B 11 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-18 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. HEALTHY HEALTHY, ridden by H Bentley and trained by P C Ng, won by N, with ACT OF FAITH second and TOGEPI third. The 3.4 favourite ROUND THE GLOBE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.10.50
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 HEALTHY HEALTHY H-/TT2 1.10.50 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · P C Ng 5 9.2 N
2 2 ACT OF FAITH B Avdulla · J Size 4 13.0 N
3 4 TOGEPI B/TT H Bowman · W K Mo 8 4.8 3/4
4 1 SOLID SHALAA B1 Z Purton · D A Hayes 6 5.5 1-1/4
5 8 ROUND THE GLOBE B A Badel · P F Yiu 2 3.4 3
6 3 TELECOM SPEED L Ferraris · Y S Tsui 7 14.0 3-1/4
7 5 HARMONY N HOME L Hewitson · C S Shum 9 16.0 3-3/4
8 6 KASI FARASI B K H Chan · C H Yip 11 21.0 3-3/4
9 11 PERFECT PEACH B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 9.1 4
10 12 H Z TOURBILLON TT M Chadwick · T P Yung 10 25.0 5
11 7 MR GOOD VIBES M F Poon · D J Hall 3 62.0 8-1/2
10 TACTICAL COMMAND K C Leung · M Newnham

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HEALTHY HEALTHY2. ACT OF FAITH+0.05L3. TOGEPI+0.75L4. SOLID SHALAA+1.25L5. ROUND THE GLOBE+3L6. TELECOM SPEED+3.25L7. HARMONY N HOME+3.75L8. KASI FARASI+3.75L9. PERFECT PEACH+4L10. H Z TOURBILLON+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SOLID SHALAA (18.4%) finished 4th — the winner HEALTHY HEALTHY was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SOLID SHALAA 18.4% 5.45 4
2 8 ROUND THE GLOBE 15.4% 6.49 5
3 11 PERFECT PEACH 13.9% 7.18 9
4 4 TOGEPI 12.7% 7.89 3
5 5 HARMONY N HOME 11.2% 8.92 7
6 9 HEALTHY HEALTHY 6.2% 16.08 1
7 6 KASI FARASI 5.4% 18.40 8
8 7 MR GOOD VIBES 5.2% 19.19 11
9 2 ACT OF FAITH 4.0% 25.04 2
10 3 TELECOM SPEED 3.9% 25.87 6
11 12 H Z TOURBILLON 3.7% 27.15 10
SOLID SHALAAROUND THE GLOBEPERFECT PEACHTOGEPIHARMONY N HOMEHEALTHY HEALTHY — wonKASI FARASIMR GOOD VIBESACT OF FAITHTELECOM SPEEDH Z TOURBILLON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 92

PLACE

2 34.5

4 17.5

9 29.5

QUINELLA

2,9 660

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 94

2,9 187

4,9 88

FORECAST

9,2 1,194

TIERCE

9,2,4 6,687

TRIO

2,4,9 1,029

FIRST 4

1,2,4,9 941

QUARTET

9,2,4,1 29,464

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

10/2/2 7,822

10/2/9 43,821

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,9/2,4,9 56,479

4TH DOUBLE

2/2 54

2/9 585.5