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Happy Valley · 2023-10-18 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD TO YIELDING 1650m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.41.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/XB 1.41.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall 2 2.8 1-1/4
2 0 MIGHTY STAR Closed strongly B/H/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 4 13.0 1-1/4
3 0 DOUBLE SHOW Closed strongly P/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 1 10.0 1-1/4
4 0 TURTLE AGAIN Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 6 17.0 1-1/2
5 0 MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng 11 5.6 1-3/4
6 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly B/XB Z Purton · M Newnham 9 7.2 1-3/4
7 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 5 14.0 2-1/4
8 0 SUPER BUDDY B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 10 37.0 4-1/4
9 0 TRAVEL GUIDE Closed strongly CP-/XB-/B1/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 3 17.0 9-3/4
10 0 BEAUTY NOVA H/CP1/TT A Badel · W K Mo 7 10.0 12-1/2
11 0 TSUEN WAN GLORY Led early H/TT L Hewitson · K L Man 12 20.0 16-1/2
12 0 HAPPY MATADOR XB-/B/TT2 M F Poon · C W Chang 8 72.0 19-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-18 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. YEE CHEONG WARRIOR, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-1/4, with MIGHTY STAR second and DOUBLE SHOW third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. YEE CHEONG WARRIOR—2. MIGHTY STAR+1.25L3. DOUBLE SHOW+1.25L4. TURTLE AGAIN+1.5L5. MEDIC ELITE+1.75L6. RIGHT HONOURABLE+1.75L7. FAITHFUL TRINITY+2.25L8. SUPER BUDDY+4.25L9. TRAVEL GUIDE+9.75L10. BEAUTY NOVA+12.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick YEE CHEONG WARRIOR (27.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR 27.6% 3.62 1
2 0 DOUBLE SHOW 15.9% 6.28 3
3 0 MEDIC ELITE 13.5% 7.42 5
4 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE 9.2% 10.82 6
5 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY 8.0% 12.46 7
6 0 TSUEN WAN GLORY 5.3% 18.83 11
7 0 TURTLE AGAIN 5.2% 19.15 4
8 0 BEAUTY NOVA 4.8% 20.67 10
9 0 MIGHTY STAR 4.1% 24.56 2
10 0 SUPER BUDDY 2.8% 36.22 8
11 0 HAPPY MATADOR 1.9% 52.76 12
12 0 TRAVEL GUIDE 1.6% 62.07 9
YEE CHEONG WARRIOR — wonDOUBLE SHOWMEDIC ELITERIGHT HONOURABLEFAITHFUL TRINITYTSUEN WAN GLORYTURTLE AGAINBEAUTY NOVAMIGHTY STARSUPER BUDDYHAPPY MATADORTRAVEL GUIDE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 28.5

PLACE

2 15.5

7 23.5

9 39

QUINELLA

2,9 194

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 47

2,9 74.5

7,9 193.5

FORECAST

2,9 286

TIERCE

2,9,7 2,434

TRIO

2,7,9 539

FIRST 4

2,5,7,9 1,496

QUARTET

2,9,7,5 21,654

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

10/2 3,613.5

10/9 1,567.5