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Happy Valley · 2023-10-18 · 12:20

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD TO YIELDING 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-18 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. YEE CHEONG WARRIOR, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-1/4, with MIGHTY STAR second and DOUBLE SHOW third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.41.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/XB 1.41.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall 2 2.8 1-1/4
2 9 MIGHTY STAR Closed strongly B/H/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 4 13.0 1-1/4
3 7 DOUBLE SHOW Closed strongly P/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 1 10.0 1-1/4
4 5 TURTLE AGAIN Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 6 17.0 1-1/2
5 6 MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng 11 5.6 1-3/4
6 3 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly B/XB Z Purton · M Newnham 9 7.2 1-3/4
7 4 FAITHFUL TRINITY B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 5 14.0 2-1/4
8 8 SUPER BUDDY B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 10 37.0 4-1/4
9 1 TRAVEL GUIDE Closed strongly CP-/XB-/B1/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 3 17.0 9-3/4
10 11 BEAUTY NOVA H/CP1/TT A Badel · W K Mo 7 10.0 12-1/2
11 10 TSUEN WAN GLORY Led early H/TT L Hewitson · K L Man 12 20.0 16-1/2
12 12 HAPPY MATADOR XB-/B/TT2 M F Poon · C W Chang 8 72.0 19-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. YEE CHEONG WARRIOR2. MIGHTY STAR+1.25L3. DOUBLE SHOW+1.25L4. TURTLE AGAIN+1.5L5. MEDIC ELITE+1.75L6. RIGHT HONOURABLE+1.75L7. FAITHFUL TRINITY+2.25L8. SUPER BUDDY+4.25L9. TRAVEL GUIDE+9.75L10. BEAUTY NOVA+12.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick YEE CHEONG WARRIOR (27.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR 27.6% 3.62 1
2 7 DOUBLE SHOW 15.9% 6.28 3
3 6 MEDIC ELITE 13.5% 7.42 5
4 3 RIGHT HONOURABLE 9.2% 10.82 6
5 4 FAITHFUL TRINITY 8.0% 12.46 7
6 10 TSUEN WAN GLORY 5.3% 18.83 11
7 5 TURTLE AGAIN 5.2% 19.15 4
8 11 BEAUTY NOVA 4.8% 20.67 10
9 9 MIGHTY STAR 4.1% 24.56 2
10 8 SUPER BUDDY 2.8% 36.22 8
11 12 HAPPY MATADOR 1.9% 52.76 12
12 1 TRAVEL GUIDE 1.6% 62.07 9
YEE CHEONG WARRIOR — wonDOUBLE SHOWMEDIC ELITERIGHT HONOURABLEFAITHFUL TRINITYTSUEN WAN GLORYTURTLE AGAINBEAUTY NOVAMIGHTY STARSUPER BUDDYHAPPY MATADORTRAVEL GUIDE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 28.5

PLACE

2 15.5

7 23.5

9 39

QUINELLA

2,9 194

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 47

2,9 74.5

7,9 193.5

FORECAST

2,9 286

TIERCE

2,9,7 2,434

TRIO

2,7,9 539

FIRST 4

2,5,7,9 1,496

QUARTET

2,9,7,5 21,654

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

10/2 3,613.5

10/9 1,567.5