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Happy Valley · 2023-10-18 · 13:20

Race 6

Class 4 YIELDING 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-18 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on YIELDING going. BEAUTY MISSION, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with AMAZING BOY second and PALACE PAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite M UNICORN finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.42.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 BEAUTY MISSION Closed strongly SR/V/TT 1.42.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · F C Lor 3 4.9 1/2
2 8 AMAZING BOY Closed strongly TT K De Melo · C W Chang 7 10.0 1/2
3 9 PALACE PAL Closed strongly V1 M F Poon · D J Hall 9 16.0 1
4 6 M UNICORN Closed strongly H/P/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 10 3.1 1-1/2
5 5 WIN WIN FIGHTER Closed strongly B L Hewitson · K W Lui 11 10.0 2-1/4
6 10 TO INFINITY B/TT K C Leung · J Richards 5 24.0 4-1/4
7 1 KASA PAPA Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 12 24.0 6-1/4
8 3 SNOWALOT B Z Purton · D A Hayes 2 4.7 6-1/4
9 4 SUPER BABY TT B Avdulla · M Newnham 6 49.0 7
10 2 MASTER TORNADO B/TT A Badel · W Y So 4 10.0 8-3/4
11 12 HAPPIHOOD Led early B Y L Chung · P C Ng 1 39.0 12-3/4
12 7 E GLORY M L Yeung · K L Man 8 102.0 23

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY MISSION2. AMAZING BOY+0.5L3. PALACE PAL+1L4. M UNICORN+1.5L5. WIN WIN FIGHTER+2.25L6. TO INFINITY+4.25L7. KASA PAPA+6.25L8. SNOWALOT+6.25L9. SUPER BABY+7L10. MASTER TORNADO+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SNOWALOT (23.2%) finished 8th — the winner BEAUTY MISSION was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 SNOWALOT 23.2% 4.31 8
2 6 M UNICORN 16.2% 6.17 4
3 11 BEAUTY MISSION 13.2% 7.55 1
4 2 MASTER TORNADO 10.7% 9.32 10
5 5 WIN WIN FIGHTER 8.7% 11.49 5
6 10 TO INFINITY 8.2% 12.24 6
7 9 PALACE PAL 6.4% 15.63 3
8 1 KASA PAPA 4.8% 20.66 7
9 8 AMAZING BOY 4.6% 21.81 2
10 4 SUPER BABY 2.0% 49.27 9
11 12 HAPPIHOOD 1.1% 93.55 11
12 7 E GLORY 0.8% 121.39 12
SNOWALOTM UNICORNBEAUTY MISSION — wonMASTER TORNADOWIN WIN FIGHTERTO INFINITYPALACE PALKASA PAPAAMAZING BOYSUPER BABYHAPPIHOODE GLORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 49.5

PLACE

8 36.5

9 41

11 18.5

QUINELLA

8,11 320.5

QUINELLA PLACE

8,9 230

8,11 94.5

9,11 107

FORECAST

11,8 482

TIERCE

11,8,9 6,300

TRIO

8,9,11 1,322

FIRST 4

6,8,9,11 699

QUARTET

11,8,9,6 22,052

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

9/8 332

9/11 871.5