Happy Valley · 2023-10-18 · 13:20
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-18 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on YIELDING going. BEAUTY MISSION, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with AMAZING BOY second and PALACE PAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite M UNICORN finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | BEAUTY MISSION Closed strongly SR/V/TT 1.42.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 3 | 4.9 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | AMAZING BOY Closed strongly TT K De Melo · C W Chang | K De Melo | C W Chang | 7 | 10.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | PALACE PAL Closed strongly V1 M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 9 | 16.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | M UNICORN Closed strongly H/P/TT H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 10 | 3.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | WIN WIN FIGHTER Closed strongly B L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 11 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | TO INFINITY B/TT K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 5 | 24.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | KASA PAPA Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 12 | 24.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | SNOWALOT B Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 2 | 4.7 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | SUPER BABY TT B Avdulla · M Newnham | B Avdulla | M Newnham | 6 | 49.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 2 | MASTER TORNADO B/TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 4 | 10.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | HAPPIHOOD Led early B Y L Chung · P C Ng | Y L Chung | P C Ng | 1 | 39.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | E GLORY M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 8 | 102.0 | 23 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SNOWALOT | 23.2% | 4.31 | 8 |
| 2 | 6 | M UNICORN | 16.2% | 6.17 | 4 |
| 3 | 11 | BEAUTY MISSION | 13.2% | 7.55 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | MASTER TORNADO | 10.7% | 9.32 | 10 |
| 5 | 5 | WIN WIN FIGHTER | 8.7% | 11.49 | 5 |
| 6 | 10 | TO INFINITY | 8.2% | 12.24 | 6 |
| 7 | 9 | PALACE PAL | 6.4% | 15.63 | 3 |
| 8 | 1 | KASA PAPA | 4.8% | 20.66 | 7 |
| 9 | 8 | AMAZING BOY | 4.6% | 21.81 | 2 |
| 10 | 4 | SUPER BABY | 2.0% | 49.27 | 9 |
| 11 | 12 | HAPPIHOOD | 1.1% | 93.55 | 11 |
| 12 | 7 | E GLORY | 0.8% | 121.39 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 49.5
PLACE
8 36.5
9 41
11 18.5
QUINELLA
8,11 320.5
QUINELLA PLACE
8,9 230
8,11 94.5
9,11 107
FORECAST
11,8 482
TIERCE
11,8,9 6,300
TRIO
8,9,11 1,322
FIRST 4
6,8,9,11 699
QUARTET
11,8,9,6 22,052
All pools (1 more)
5TH DOUBLE
9/8 332
9/11 871.5