Happy Valley · 2023-10-18 · 14:20
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-18 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on YIELDING going. NEVER TOO SOON, ridden by K De Melo and trained by D J Hall, won by 1, with WONDER KIT second and GRATEFUL HEART third. The 2.2 favourite WONDER KIT finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | NEVER TOO SOON CP-/H-/TT- 1.10.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 2 | 7.3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | WONDER KIT CP Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 1 | 2.2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | GRATEFUL HEART CP/TT H Bentley · W Y So | H Bentley | W Y So | 5 | 25.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | CAPITAL DELIGHT TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 10 | 7.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | BEAUTY GLORY H/CP1/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 6 | 10.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | HAPPY GOLF M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 7 | 16.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | PHOENIX LIGHT H/TT A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 4 | 13.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | MAGIC PHOENIX TT A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 12 | 43.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | DRAGON'S LUCK L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 11 | 10.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | O'LINER P/TT L Ferraris · T P Yung | L Ferraris | T P Yung | 9 | 12.0 | 12 |
| 11 | 9 | E UNIVERSE TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 3 | 39.0 | 14 |
| 12 | 5 | ACCOLADE START TT1 A Atzeni · C S Shum | A Atzeni | C S Shum | 8 | 101.0 | 20 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | WONDER KIT | 29.2% | 3.42 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | CAPITAL DELIGHT | 14.2% | 7.02 | 4 |
| 3 | 7 | BEAUTY GLORY | 14.1% | 7.11 | 5 |
| 4 | 1 | DRAGON'S LUCK | 13.8% | 7.27 | 9 |
| 5 | 12 | NEVER TOO SOON | 5.8% | 17.22 | 1 |
| 6 | 4 | O'LINER | 5.8% | 17.35 | 10 |
| 7 | 10 | PHOENIX LIGHT | 4.6% | 21.68 | 7 |
| 8 | 11 | HAPPY GOLF | 3.1% | 32.20 | 6 |
| 9 | 8 | MAGIC PHOENIX | 3.0% | 33.27 | 8 |
| 10 | 9 | E UNIVERSE | 2.7% | 36.52 | 11 |
| 11 | 5 | ACCOLADE START | 2.2% | 45.45 | 12 |
| 12 | 2 | GRATEFUL HEART | 1.5% | 65.93 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 73.5
PLACE
2 57
3 12
12 23.5
QUINELLA
3,12 86.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 153
2,12 310
3,12 37.5
FORECAST
12,3 244
TIERCE
12,3,2 5,295
TRIO
2,3,12 846
FIRST 4
2,3,6,12 1,229
QUARTET
12,3,2,6 27,832
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
4/3 21.5
4/12 731