Happy Valley · 2023-10-18 · 21:46
Race 7
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | OUTGATE Wire to wire H/TT 1.41.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 5.1 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | THESIS Closed strongly TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 4 | 9.8 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | ROMANTIC LAOS H/TT Z Purton · W K Mo | Z Purton | W K Mo | 2 | 2.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 0 | CAPITAL LEGEND Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 6 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | C P BRAVE Closed strongly B-/V1 K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 7 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | CHARITY BINGO Closed strongly SR- L Ferraris · C S Shum | L Ferraris | C S Shum | 12 | 46.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | FAMILY FOLKS CP A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 3 | 29.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | RED MAJESTY Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 9 | 38.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | SHOW RESPECT CP/SR/XB/TT A Atzeni · D J Whyte | A Atzeni | D J Whyte | 10 | 26.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | VIVA HUNTER TT H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 5 | 14.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | ESCAPE ROUTE H B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 8 | 35.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 0 | SILVER SONIC XB H Bentley · K W Lui | H Bentley | K W Lui | 11 | 9.2 | 7-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-18 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on YIELDING going. OUTGATE, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with THESIS second and ROMANTIC LAOS third. The winner led throughout. The 2.4 favourite ROMANTIC LAOS finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | OUTGATE | 21.5% | 4.66 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | ROMANTIC LAOS | 20.2% | 4.95 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | SILVER SONIC | 16.1% | 6.21 | 12 |
| 4 | 0 | VIVA HUNTER | 11.8% | 8.44 | 10 |
| 5 | 0 | CAPITAL LEGEND | 7.5% | 13.42 | 4 |
| 6 | 0 | SHOW RESPECT | 3.9% | 25.53 | 9 |
| 7 | 0 | FAMILY FOLKS | 3.9% | 25.57 | 7 |
| 8 | 0 | THESIS | 3.7% | 27.01 | 2 |
| 9 | 0 | RED MAJESTY | 3.7% | 27.04 | 8 |
| 10 | 0 | CHARITY BINGO | 3.3% | 30.26 | 6 |
| 11 | 0 | C P BRAVE | 2.8% | 36.07 | 5 |
| 12 | 0 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 1.6% | 61.12 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 51
PLACE
2 13
4 18
12 35.5
QUINELLA
4,12 284
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 31
2,12 62.5
4,12 96.5
FORECAST
4,12 480
TIERCE
4,12,2 1,502
TRIO
2,4,12 209
FIRST 4
2,4,7,12 486
QUARTET
4,12,2,7 12,974
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
8,9,11/2,4,12 61,403
6TH DOUBLE
11/4 191.5
11/12 105.5
TRIPLE TRIO
2,4,9/8,9,11/2,4,12 4,706,317
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,4,9/8,9,11/Any Combination 38,640