Sha Tin · 2023-10-25 · 11:20
Race 1
Class 5
GOOD (AWT)
1800m
12 runners
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-25 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. JUBILATION, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by W Y So, won by SH, with M M NEBULA second and STARSHIP EIGHTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite SUN OF MAKFI finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | JUBILATION Closed strongly V 1.49.08 M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 9 | 9.2 | SH |
| 2 | 2 | M M NEBULA Led early CP/TT M Chadwick · P C Ng | M Chadwick | P C Ng | 2 | 7.0 | SH |
| 3 | 11 | STARSHIP EIGHTY Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 12 | 7.5 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | GREEN LASER B/TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 7 | 12.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly B/XB Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 4 | 2.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | COLOURFUL BARON PC-/B2/TT L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 1 | 6.5 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | CHIRON Closed strongly CP/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 3 | 20.0 | 10 |
| 8 | 9 | DAILY BEAUTY Closed strongly B-/V2/TT2 B Avdulla · C Fownes | B Avdulla | C Fownes | 6 | 17.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | STAR OF GLORY B-/P2 K H Chan · C W Chang | K H Chan | C W Chang | 10 | 59.0 | 16 |
| 10 | 3 | NICE BIRDIE B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 5 | 12.0 | 16-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | HAPPIHOOD B Y L Chung · P C Ng | Y L Chung | P C Ng | 8 | 70.0 | 19-3/4 |
| 12 | 4 | CASA SACRED B-/TT- A Atzeni · M Newnham | A Atzeni | M Newnham | 11 | 69.0 | 24-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick M M NEBULA (19.8%) finished 2nd — the winner JUBILATION was rated #7.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | M M NEBULA | 19.8% | 5.04 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | SUN OF MAKFI | 19.6% | 5.11 | 5 |
| 3 | 6 | COLOURFUL BARON | 18.9% | 5.29 | 6 |
| 4 | 11 | STARSHIP EIGHTY | 11.0% | 9.11 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | CHIRON | 6.4% | 15.51 | 7 |
| 6 | 12 | GREEN LASER | 6.1% | 16.52 | 4 |
| 7 | 7 | JUBILATION | 6.0% | 16.73 | 1 |
| 8 | 10 | STAR OF GLORY | 3.4% | 29.18 | 9 |
| 9 | 3 | NICE BIRDIE | 3.1% | 32.18 | 10 |
| 10 | 9 | DAILY BEAUTY | 2.2% | 45.01 | 8 |
| 11 | 1 | HAPPIHOOD | 2.0% | 50.11 | 11 |
| 12 | 4 | CASA SACRED | 1.5% | 67.86 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.