Sha Tin · 2023-10-25 · 15:00
Race 8
Class 3
GOOD (AWT)
1200m
12 runners
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-25 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. PACKING BOLE, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by C S Shum, won by 3-3/4, with MAGNIAC second and SELF IMPROVEMENT third. The 3.9 favourite SELF IMPROVEMENT finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | PACKING BOLE TT1 1.08.21 A Atzeni · C S Shum | A Atzeni | C S Shum | 7 | 5.1 | 3-3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | MAGNIAC V/TT B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 5 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | SELF IMPROVEMENT B/TT Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 12 | 3.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | SUPER WIN DRAGON V/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 8 | 6.5 | 6-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | GALAXY PATCH B K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 3 | 5.1 | 6-3/4 |
| 6 | 9 | EVERYONE'S VICTORY H/TT H Bentley · F C Lor | H Bentley | F C Lor | 2 | 20.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | SHINING FORTUNE B-/XB/PC2 A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 1 | 14.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | PULSAR STRIDER L Ferraris · T P Yung | L Ferraris | T P Yung | 6 | 24.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | EURO ROCKS TT M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 10 | 12.0 | 13 |
| 10 | 10 | VICTORY SCHOLARS V K De Melo · C Fownes | K De Melo | C Fownes | 11 | 32.0 | 16 |
| 11 | 7 | LOVERO TT1 Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 9 | 42.0 | 19 |
| 12 | 8 | FAST VICTORY L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 4 | 74.0 | 19-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick GALAXY PATCH (32.6%) finished 5th — the winner PACKING BOLE was rated #7.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | GALAXY PATCH | 32.6% | 3.06 | 5 |
| 2 | 4 | SELF IMPROVEMENT | 17.7% | 5.64 | 3 |
| 3 | 9 | EVERYONE'S VICTORY | 7.2% | 13.94 | 6 |
| 4 | 10 | VICTORY SCHOLARS | 6.8% | 14.74 | 10 |
| 5 | 12 | SHINING FORTUNE | 6.4% | 15.62 | 7 |
| 6 | 3 | PULSAR STRIDER | 6.3% | 15.89 | 8 |
| 7 | 11 | PACKING BOLE | 6.0% | 16.77 | 1 |
| 8 | 2 | MAGNIAC | 4.3% | 23.16 | 2 |
| 9 | 7 | LOVERO | 4.1% | 24.48 | 11 |
| 10 | 1 | SUPER WIN DRAGON | 3.2% | 31.28 | 4 |
| 11 | 8 | FAST VICTORY | 2.8% | 36.29 | 12 |
| 12 | 6 | EURO ROCKS | 2.6% | 37.91 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.