Sha Tin · 2023-10-25 · 13:25
Race 5
Class 4
GOOD (AWT)
1200m
12 runners
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-25 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. MAGIC SUPREME, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by N, with FAST BUCK second and STRIVE FOR GLORY third. The 4.2 favourite COOL BLUE finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | MAGIC SUPREME B/TT 1.08.82 M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 4 | 12.0 | N |
| 2 | 6 | FAST BUCK P B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 1 | 4.9 | N |
| 3 | 11 | STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 12 | 25.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | COOL BLUE CP1/TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 8 | 4.2 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 10 | ACA POWER CP M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 5 | 10.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | KILLER INSTINCT V/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 9 | 6.7 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | KING ECCELLENTE B/XB K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 7 | 15.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | MR ALADDIN B1 A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 6 | 58.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | EIGHT TRIGRAMS B/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 11 | 16.0 | 10 |
| 10 | 1 | FLYING DRAGON B/XB H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 2 | 6.6 | 16-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | MEGA BONUS CP Y L Chung · P F Yiu | Y L Chung | P F Yiu | 10 | 16.0 | 19 |
| 12 | 5 | PODIUM B/XB A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 3 | 19.0 | 19 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick FLYING DRAGON (11.9%) finished 10th — the winner MAGIC SUPREME was rated #8.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | FLYING DRAGON | 11.9% | 8.38 | 10 |
| 2 | 9 | COOL BLUE | 11.2% | 8.94 | 4 |
| 3 | 5 | PODIUM | 10.8% | 9.27 | 12 |
| 4 | 3 | KING ECCELLENTE | 10.2% | 9.77 | 7 |
| 5 | 10 | ACA POWER | 9.1% | 11.00 | 5 |
| 6 | 8 | KILLER INSTINCT | 8.6% | 11.58 | 6 |
| 7 | 7 | MR ALADDIN | 8.1% | 12.33 | 8 |
| 8 | 4 | MAGIC SUPREME | 7.6% | 13.24 | 1 |
| 9 | 11 | STRIVE FOR GLORY | 6.8% | 14.78 | 3 |
| 10 | 6 | FAST BUCK | 5.9% | 17.08 | 2 |
| 11 | 2 | MEGA BONUS | 5.7% | 17.51 | 11 |
| 12 | 12 | EIGHT TRIGRAMS | 4.1% | 24.20 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 4
Race 6 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m
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