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Sha Tin · 2023-10-25 · 21:21

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.08.82
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MAGIC SUPREME B/TT 1.08.82 M Chadwick · K L Man 4 12.0 N
2 0 FAST BUCK P B Avdulla · J Size 1 4.9 N
3 0 STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT K Teetan · W Y So 12 25.0 3-3/4
4 0 COOL BLUE CP1/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 8 4.2 4-1/2
5 0 ACA POWER CP M F Poon · D J Hall 5 10.0 4-1/2
6 0 KILLER INSTINCT V/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 9 6.7 6-1/4
7 0 KING ECCELLENTE B/XB K De Melo · D J Whyte 7 15.0 8-1/2
8 0 MR ALADDIN B1 A Atzeni · P C Ng 6 58.0 9-3/4
9 0 EIGHT TRIGRAMS B/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui 11 16.0 10
10 0 FLYING DRAGON B/XB H Bentley · C H Yip 2 6.6 16-3/4
11 0 MEGA BONUS CP Y L Chung · P F Yiu 10 16.0 19
12 0 PODIUM B/XB A Badel · K W Lui 3 19.0 19

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-25 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. MAGIC SUPREME, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by N, with FAST BUCK second and STRIVE FOR GLORY third. The 4.2 favourite COOL BLUE finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MAGIC SUPREME—2. FAST BUCK+0.05L3. STRIVE FOR GLORY+3.75L4. COOL BLUE+4.5L5. ACA POWER+4.5L6. KILLER INSTINCT+6.25L7. KING ECCELLENTE+8.5L8. MR ALADDIN+9.75L9. EIGHT TRIGRAMS+10L10. FLYING DRAGON+16.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick FLYING DRAGON (11.9%) finished 10th — the winner MAGIC SUPREME was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 FLYING DRAGON 11.9% 8.38 10
2 0 COOL BLUE 11.2% 8.94 4
3 0 PODIUM 10.8% 9.27 12
4 0 KING ECCELLENTE 10.2% 9.77 7
5 0 ACA POWER 9.1% 11.00 5
6 0 KILLER INSTINCT 8.6% 11.58 6
7 0 MR ALADDIN 8.1% 12.33 8
8 0 MAGIC SUPREME 7.6% 13.24 1
9 0 STRIVE FOR GLORY 6.8% 14.78 3
10 0 FAST BUCK 5.9% 17.08 2
11 0 MEGA BONUS 5.7% 17.51 11
12 0 EIGHT TRIGRAMS 4.1% 24.20 9
FLYING DRAGONCOOL BLUEPODIUMKING ECCELLENTEACA POWERKILLER INSTINCTMR ALADDINMAGIC SUPREME — wonSTRIVE FOR GLORYFAST BUCKMEGA BONUSEIGHT TRIGRAMS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

No dividends for this race in our data.