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Sha Tin · 2023-10-25 · 20:19

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MISSION BRAVO Closed strongly B 1.39.72 L Ferraris · M Newnham 10 4.1 SH
2 0 LUCKY BANNER Led early H/TT L Currie · C Fownes 2 10.0 SH
3 0 ASIAN ONE Closed strongly B-/XB/PC2/TT M Chadwick · J Richards 4 28.0 2-1/4
4 0 BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB E C W Wong · P C Ng 11 6.9 2-1/2
5 0 BOOM ALLIANCE Closed strongly SR/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 3 5.6 3
6 0 ALL ARE MINE Closed strongly H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 42.0 3-3/4
7 0 MORE RICE V- K Teetan · T P Yung 1 6.4 4
8 0 FORTUNE PRESIDENT K De Melo · Y S Tsui 7 18.0 4-1/4
9 0 GALLANT HERO Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall 14 7.4 4-1/2
10 0 COPARTNER FIONN Closed strongly B-/XB1/TT A Badel · W Y So 13 57.0 4-3/4
11 0 DARCI LEGEND XB1/TT- M F Poon · K W Lui 6 72.0 5-1/4
12 0 RELIABLE PROFIT B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 12 10.0 8
13 0 YEABOI P1/TT A Atzeni · C H Yip 5 48.0 14-3/4
— 0 EVER BLESSING K C Leung · P F Yiu — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-25 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. MISSION BRAVO, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by SH, with LUCKY BANNER second and ASIAN ONE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.1 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MISSION BRAVO—2. LUCKY BANNER+0.1L3. ASIAN ONE+2.25L4. BILLIONAIRE SECRET+2.5L5. BOOM ALLIANCE+3L6. ALL ARE MINE+3.75L7. MORE RICE+4L8. FORTUNE PRESIDENT+4.25L9. GALLANT HERO+4.5L10. COPARTNER FIONN+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GALLANT HERO (28.1%) finished 9th — the winner MISSION BRAVO was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GALLANT HERO 28.1% 3.56 9
2 0 MISSION BRAVO 13.8% 7.24 1
3 0 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 10.1% 9.91 4
4 0 RELIABLE PROFIT 7.6% 13.22 12
5 0 MORE RICE 6.6% 15.05 7
6 0 FORTUNE PRESIDENT 6.3% 15.83 8
7 0 BOOM ALLIANCE 6.1% 16.28 5
8 0 COPARTNER FIONN 4.5% 22.06 10
9 0 DARCI LEGEND 4.5% 22.07 11
10 0 YEABOI 3.9% 25.97 13
11 0 ASIAN ONE 3.2% 31.19 3
12 0 LUCKY BANNER 3.0% 33.00 2
13 0 ALL ARE MINE 2.2% 46.32 6
GALLANT HEROMISSION BRAVO — wonBILLIONAIRE SECRETRELIABLE PROFITMORE RICEFORTUNE PRESIDENTBOOM ALLIANCECOPARTNER FIONNDARCI LEGENDYEABOIASIAN ONELUCKY BANNERALL ARE MINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

No dividends for this race in our data.