Sha Tin · 2023-10-25 · 12:20
Race 3
Class 4
GOOD (AWT)
1650m
13 runners
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-25 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. MISSION BRAVO, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by SH, with LUCKY BANNER second and ASIAN ONE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | MISSION BRAVO Closed strongly B 1.39.72 L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 10 | 4.1 | SH |
| 2 | 5 | LUCKY BANNER Led early H/TT L Currie · C Fownes | L Currie | C Fownes | 2 | 10.0 | SH |
| 3 | 11 | ASIAN ONE Closed strongly B-/XB/PC2/TT M Chadwick · J Richards | M Chadwick | J Richards | 4 | 28.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB E C W Wong · P C Ng | E C W Wong | P C Ng | 11 | 6.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | BOOM ALLIANCE Closed strongly SR/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 3 | 5.6 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 | ALL ARE MINE Closed strongly H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 9 | 42.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | MORE RICE V- K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 1 | 6.4 | 4 |
| 8 | 10 | FORTUNE PRESIDENT K De Melo · Y S Tsui | K De Melo | Y S Tsui | 7 | 18.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | GALLANT HERO Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 14 | 7.4 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 14 | COPARTNER FIONN Closed strongly B-/XB1/TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 13 | 57.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 13 | DARCI LEGEND XB1/TT- M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 6 | 72.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 9 | RELIABLE PROFIT B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 12 | 10.0 | 8 |
| 13 | 4 | YEABOI P1/TT A Atzeni · C H Yip | A Atzeni | C H Yip | 5 | 48.0 | 14-3/4 |
| — | 8 | EVER BLESSING K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick GALLANT HERO (28.1%) finished 9th — the winner MISSION BRAVO was rated #2.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GALLANT HERO | 28.1% | 3.56 | 9 |
| 2 | 7 | MISSION BRAVO | 13.8% | 7.24 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET | 10.1% | 9.91 | 4 |
| 4 | 9 | RELIABLE PROFIT | 7.6% | 13.22 | 12 |
| 5 | 6 | MORE RICE | 6.6% | 15.05 | 7 |
| 6 | 10 | FORTUNE PRESIDENT | 6.3% | 15.83 | 8 |
| 7 | 12 | BOOM ALLIANCE | 6.1% | 16.28 | 5 |
| 8 | 14 | COPARTNER FIONN | 4.5% | 22.06 | 10 |
| 9 | 13 | DARCI LEGEND | 4.5% | 22.07 | 11 |
| 10 | 4 | YEABOI | 3.9% | 25.97 | 13 |
| 11 | 11 | ASIAN ONE | 3.2% | 31.19 | 3 |
| 12 | 5 | LUCKY BANNER | 3.0% | 33.00 | 2 |
| 13 | 3 | ALL ARE MINE | 2.2% | 46.32 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 2
Race 4 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1650m
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