Sha Tin · 2023-10-25 · 12:50
Race 4
Class 4
GOOD (AWT)
1200m
12 runners
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-25 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. RED DESERT, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with COLOURFUL PRINCE second and DAILY TROPHY third. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | RED DESERT 1.09.52 B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 4 | 2.7 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 6 | COLOURFUL PRINCE SR/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 10 | 38.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 12 | DAILY TROPHY H-/PC-/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 2 | 55.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 5 | BRAVE WITNESS TT1 L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 1 | 16.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | SMART FOLKS B/SR A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 7 | 9.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | LUCKY FUN B/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 11 | 14.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | MAN STAR V K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 6 | 8.6 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | HAPPY FAT CAT CP/TT Y L Chung · W K Mo | Y L Chung | W K Mo | 3 | 9.9 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | SAMARKAND CP/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes | C L Chau | D A Hayes | 12 | 19.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | SUPER FAST DRAGON CP/XB/TT A Badel · J Richards | A Badel | J Richards | 9 | 17.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | E BROTHER B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 5 | 31.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 4 | STAND UP Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 8 | 4.6 | 23-1/4 |
| — | 0 | JOY IN JOY M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick STAND UP (21.9%) finished 12th — the winner RED DESERT was rated #8.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | STAND UP | 21.9% | 4.57 | 12 |
| 2 | 1 | HAPPY FAT CAT | 12.0% | 8.31 | 8 |
| 3 | 6 | COLOURFUL PRINCE | 11.6% | 8.60 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | BRAVE WITNESS | 8.2% | 12.16 | 4 |
| 5 | 2 | MAN STAR | 7.6% | 13.12 | 7 |
| 6 | 3 | E BROTHER | 7.0% | 14.35 | 11 |
| 7 | 9 | SMART FOLKS | 6.6% | 15.06 | 5 |
| 8 | 8 | RED DESERT | 6.0% | 16.56 | 1 |
| 9 | 10 | LUCKY FUN | 5.7% | 17.67 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | SUPER FAST DRAGON | 5.3% | 18.72 | 10 |
| 11 | 7 | SAMARKAND | 4.9% | 20.45 | 9 |
| 12 | 12 | DAILY TROPHY | 3.1% | 32.46 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 3
Race 5 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m
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