Sha Tin · 2023-10-25 · 14:35
Race 7
Class 2
GOOD (AWT)
1650m
13 runners
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-25 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S, ridden by M F Poon and trained by F C Lor, won by 2, with CHANCHENG PRINCE second and RISE BRETHREN third. The winner led throughout. The 3.1 favourite HANDSOME TWELVE finished 13th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Wire to wire B 1.38.01 M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 1 | 13.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | CHANCHENG PRINCE Closed strongly XB/TT A Atzeni · K W Lui | A Atzeni | K W Lui | 12 | 9.3 | 2 |
| 3 | 11 | RISE BRETHREN Closed strongly P2/TT K De Melo · J Richards | K De Melo | J Richards | 3 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | ERIMO B-/PC2 A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 6 | 5.2 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 2 | 17.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | TELECOM FIGHTERS L Ferraris · Y S Tsui | L Ferraris | Y S Tsui | 5 | 26.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | EVERYONE'S DELIGHT V/TT H Bentley · F C Lor | H Bentley | F C Lor | 8 | 76.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | YOUTHFUL DEAL SR/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 4 | 6.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 13 | NEARLY FINE Closed strongly B1/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 13 | 33.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | SPIRITED EXPRESS B L Hewitson · P F Yiu | L Hewitson | P F Yiu | 11 | 22.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | APACHE PASS PC/XB K C Leung · P C Ng | K C Leung | P C Ng | 10 | 17.0 | 13 |
| 12 | 6 | TRUE LEGEND B/TT1 Y L Chung · W K Mo | Y L Chung | W K Mo | 9 | 51.0 | 17-3/4 |
| 13 | 9 | HANDSOME TWELVE Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 7 | 3.1 | 20 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick RISE BRETHREN (20.3%) finished 3rd — the winner ALL FOR ST PAUL'S was rated #5.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | RISE BRETHREN | 20.3% | 4.93 | 3 |
| 2 | 9 | HANDSOME TWELVE | 13.3% | 7.51 | 13 |
| 3 | 7 | BERLIN TANGO | 11.0% | 9.07 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | YOUTHFUL DEAL | 7.5% | 13.25 | 8 |
| 5 | 12 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S | 7.5% | 13.38 | 1 |
| 6 | 3 | SPIRITED EXPRESS | 7.3% | 13.68 | 10 |
| 7 | 13 | NEARLY FINE | 6.3% | 15.92 | 9 |
| 8 | 8 | ERIMO | 5.1% | 19.63 | 4 |
| 9 | 1 | TELECOM FIGHTERS | 5.0% | 19.97 | 6 |
| 10 | 4 | APACHE PASS | 4.5% | 22.05 | 11 |
| 11 | 6 | TRUE LEGEND | 4.3% | 23.08 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | EVERYONE'S DELIGHT | 4.3% | 23.19 | 7 |
| 13 | 2 | CHANCHENG PRINCE | 3.5% | 28.81 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
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Race 8 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1650m
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