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Sha Tin · 2023-11-26 · 12:47

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.61
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 APEX TOP Closed strongly B 1.22.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Whyte 1 5.5 HD
2 0 ANGELS HUNTER Closed strongly V/TT1 M Chadwick · K L Man 2 12.0 HD
3 0 BEAT HOLLOW Led early E C W Wong · Y S Tsui 8 7.1 2-1/4
4 0 COMPULSORY Closed strongly CP/XB K Teetan · C W Chang 7 8.0 2-1/2
5 0 RATTAN WORLD Closed strongly B/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 5 5.9 2-3/4
6 0 TSUEN WAN GLORY Closed strongly H/TT A Badel · K L Man 13 47.0 3
7 0 GENERAL WINNER Closed strongly V/XB/TT A Atzeni · W Y So 6 10.0 4-1/2
8 0 MASTER OF LUCK Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 14.0 5
9 0 SUPER CONTENTED Closed strongly H-/P-/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 14 91.0 5-1/4
10 0 DEVIL AND GOLD Closed strongly A Hamelin · C H Yip 11 37.0 5-3/4
11 0 GO GO GO Closed strongly TT Z Purton · W Y So 12 8.2 6-1/2
12 0 YOO YOO KNIGHT BO1 C L Chau · T P Yung 4 6.5 6-1/2
13 0 MULTIWIN B/H Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 72.0 7-3/4
14 0 GREAT BRILLIANT B- M L Yeung · M Newnham 9 126.0 10
— 0 ART LITE K De Melo · W K Mo — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-26 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. APEX TOP, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Whyte, won by HD, with ANGELS HUNTER second and BEAT HOLLOW third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 5.5 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. APEX TOP—2. ANGELS HUNTER+0.2L3. BEAT HOLLOW+2.25L4. COMPULSORY+2.5L5. RATTAN WORLD+2.75L6. TSUEN WAN GLORY+3L7. GENERAL WINNER+4.5L8. MASTER OF LUCK+5L9. SUPER CONTENTED+5.25L10. DEVIL AND GOLD+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MASTER OF LUCK (12.0%) finished 8th — the winner APEX TOP was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MASTER OF LUCK 12.0% 8.33 8
2 0 APEX TOP 11.8% 8.49 1
3 0 BEAT HOLLOW 11.6% 8.63 3
4 0 GO GO GO 11.2% 8.93 11
5 0 ANGELS HUNTER 9.8% 10.24 2
6 0 GENERAL WINNER 8.8% 11.31 7
7 0 YOO YOO KNIGHT 8.3% 12.07 12
8 0 COMPULSORY 6.3% 15.96 4
9 0 RATTAN WORLD 6.2% 16.08 5
10 0 GREAT BRILLIANT 4.0% 25.10 14
11 0 TSUEN WAN GLORY 3.7% 26.88 6
12 0 MULTIWIN 2.8% 35.94 13
13 0 DEVIL AND GOLD 2.1% 48.56 10
14 0 SUPER CONTENTED 1.5% 65.97 9
MASTER OF LUCKAPEX TOP — wonBEAT HOLLOWGO GO GOANGELS HUNTERGENERAL WINNERYOO YOO KNIGHTCOMPULSORYRATTAN WORLDGREAT BRILLIANTTSUEN WAN GLORYMULTIWINDEVIL AND GOLDSUPER CONTENTED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 55.5

PLACE

9 26

10 21

13 37

QUINELLA

10,13 296

QUINELLA PLACE

9,10 94

9,13 160.5

10,13 106

FORECAST

10,13 482

TIERCE

10,13,9 4,161

TRIO

9,10,13 821

FIRST 4

9,10,13,14 1,499

QUARTET

10,13,9,14 38,023