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Sha Tin · 2023-11-26 · 09:55

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-26 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. I GIVE, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P C Ng, won by HD, with COTTON FINGERS second and GLOBAL HARMONY third. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.99
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 I GIVE 1.08.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P C Ng 3 3.0 HD
2 5 COTTON FINGERS TT M Chadwick · W Y So 1 9.8 HD
3 4 GLOBAL HARMONY CP K Teetan · D A Hayes 12 10.0 1
4 7 TORONADO PHANTOM TT A Badel · J Size 4 13.0 1-1/4
5 9 LADY'S CHOICE B-/H/V1 Z Purton · C W Chang 6 4.7 2-1/4
6 1 BEAUTY CRESCENT B/TT J McDonald · A S Cruz 9 7.2 2-1/2
7 3 WINGS OF WAR B/TT1 B Avdulla · J Richards 10 30.0 3
8 11 SWIFT ASCEND XB K De Melo · D J Whyte 5 35.0 3-1/4
9 6 GOOD BUDDY CP L Ferraris · D J Hall 2 10.0 3-1/4
10 8 HAPPY DAILY A Hamelin · C H Yip 8 72.0 4-1/2
11 2 GOLDEN EMPIRE B L Hewitson · K W Lui 7 11.0 5-1/2
12 12 UP AND UP TT M L Yeung · C S Shum 11 124.0 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. I GIVE2. COTTON FINGERS+0.2L3. GLOBAL HARMONY+1L4. TORONADO PHANTOM+1.25L5. LADY'S CHOICE+2.25L6. BEAUTY CRESCENT+2.5L7. WINGS OF WAR+3L8. SWIFT ASCEND+3.25L9. GOOD BUDDY+3.25L10. HAPPY DAILY+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LADY'S CHOICE (25.1%) finished 5th — the winner I GIVE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 LADY'S CHOICE 25.1% 3.99 5
2 10 I GIVE 22.3% 4.49 1
3 5 COTTON FINGERS 10.1% 9.90 2
4 4 GLOBAL HARMONY 9.8% 10.23 3
5 1 BEAUTY CRESCENT 7.4% 13.59 6
6 2 GOLDEN EMPIRE 6.7% 14.97 11
7 7 TORONADO PHANTOM 5.5% 18.11 4
8 6 GOOD BUDDY 3.6% 27.44 9
9 11 SWIFT ASCEND 3.4% 29.46 8
10 3 WINGS OF WAR 3.1% 32.58 7
11 8 HAPPY DAILY 2.2% 45.93 10
12 12 UP AND UP 1.0% 104.26 12
LADY'S CHOICEI GIVE — wonCOTTON FINGERSGLOBAL HARMONYBEAUTY CRESCENTGOLDEN EMPIRETORONADO PHANTOMGOOD BUDDYSWIFT ASCENDWINGS OF WARHAPPY DAILYUP AND UP

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 30.5

PLACE

4 28

5 31

10 15.5

QUINELLA

5,10 197

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 152.5

4,10 68.5

5,10 70

FORECAST

10,5 329

TIERCE

10,5,4 2,324

TRIO

4,5,10 603

FIRST 4

4,5,7,10 1,360

QUARTET

10,5,4,7 19,217

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

6/10/5 1,282

6/10/10 1,644

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,8,10/4,5,10 52,444

9TH DOUBLE

10/5 72

10/10 77

SIX UP

7,10/4,7/6,9/3,6/1,10/5,10 123,403

10/4/6/6/10/10 2,655,233

4 [A Atzeni]

5 [P C Ng]