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Sha Tin · 2023-11-26 · 05:20

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C 13 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-26 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. WUNDERBAR, ridden by J McDonald and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with FLYING DRAGON second and GANGNAM STAR third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.57.39
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 WUNDERBAR 0.57.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · J Size 4 1.6 3/4
2 1 FLYING DRAGON B-/XB K Teetan · C H Yip 8 14.0 3/4
3 4 GANGNAM STAR TT1 M Chadwick · P C Ng 14 13.0 2-1/2
4 7 LOYAL BO BO Z Purton · F C Lor 2 2.9 2-1/2
5 8 NEW POWER H1 M L Yeung · C W Chang 13 111.0 3
6 6 GUSTY FIGHTER TT1 B Avdulla · J Richards 9 46.0 3-1/2
7 3 VALIANT ELEGANCE V-/SR2/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte 5 53.0 4
8 14 JOY FOR YOU B Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 12 158.0 6-1/4
9 13 HAYDAY TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu 3 99.0 7-1/4
10 9 PATCH OF WATCH L Ferraris · K H Ting 7 53.0 7-1/4
11 12 GOLDEN CHAMPION CP1/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 11 203.0 8
12 10 ISLAND BRIGHT K C Leung · P F Yiu 6 90.0 9-1/4
13 5 GRAND CONQUEROR L Hewitson · M Newnham 10 54.0 9-1/2
0 BELLE HEART C L Chau · T P Yung
11 LUCKY QUALITY C Y Ho · C Fownes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WUNDERBAR2. FLYING DRAGON+0.75L3. GANGNAM STAR+2.5L4. LOYAL BO BO+2.5L5. NEW POWER+3L6. GUSTY FIGHTER+3.5L7. VALIANT ELEGANCE+4L8. JOY FOR YOU+6.25L9. HAYDAY+7.25L10. PATCH OF WATCH+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LOYAL BO BO (29.9%) finished 4th — the winner WUNDERBAR was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 LOYAL BO BO 29.9% 3.35 4
2 2 WUNDERBAR 28.9% 3.46 1
3 4 GANGNAM STAR 8.2% 12.26 3
4 1 FLYING DRAGON 6.5% 15.34 2
5 5 GRAND CONQUEROR 6.1% 16.37 13
6 3 VALIANT ELEGANCE 5.3% 18.82 7
7 6 GUSTY FIGHTER 4.0% 25.15 6
8 13 HAYDAY 3.9% 25.56 9
9 8 NEW POWER 2.4% 41.11 5
10 9 PATCH OF WATCH 1.8% 55.71 10
11 14 JOY FOR YOU 1.2% 84.09 8
12 10 ISLAND BRIGHT 1.2% 86.13 12
13 12 GOLDEN CHAMPION 0.7% 146.13 11
LOYAL BO BOWUNDERBAR — wonGANGNAM STARFLYING DRAGONGRAND CONQUERORVALIANT ELEGANCEGUSTY FIGHTERHAYDAYNEW POWERPATCH OF WATCHJOY FOR YOUISLAND BRIGHTGOLDEN CHAMPION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 16.5

PLACE

1 22.5

2 11

4 26.5

QUINELLA

1,2 74

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 30.5

1,4 127.5

2,4 35

FORECAST

2,1 120

TIERCE

2,1,4 585

TRIO

1,2,4 217

FIRST 4

1,2,4,7 88

QUARTET

2,1,4,7 1,527

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

10/1 103

10/2,11 125.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

9,10,13/1,4>2,11 33,971