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Sha Tin · 2023-11-26 · 07:25

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C 13 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-26 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. MISTER DAPPER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Whyte, won by 3/4, with LUCKY ETERNITY second and JOYFUL PROSPERITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite MASTER HERO finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.34.97
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 MISTER DAPPER Closed strongly H/SR/XB 1.34.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Whyte 1 5.7 3/4
2 7 LUCKY ETERNITY Led early CP M Chadwick · T P Yung 13 7.5 3/4
3 13 JOYFUL PROSPERITY Closed strongly A Hamelin · C W Chang 4 13.0 1-3/4
4 1 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 2 22.0 2-1/4
5 5 WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC Z Purton · P C Ng 6 7.9 3-1/4
6 6 CHATEAU A Badel · J Size 10 43.0 3-3/4
7 14 SHARPEN BRIGHT Closed strongly B Avdulla · D J Hall 5 5.2 3-3/4
8 3 MASTER HERO CP/XB/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 4.4 4
9 12 SUPER WISE DRAGON TT C Y Ho · W Y So 12 8.3 4
10 4 CASA COSMO CP/XB/TT K C Leung · J Richards 14 66.0 5-1/2
11 2 IMPERIAL MAGEE SR/XB/TT J McDonald · K H Ting 9 18.0 6-3/4
12 11 NINJA DERBY H/XB L Hewitson · D A Hayes 7 67.0 7-3/4
13 9 GO GO SIXTEEN B/TT C L Chau · K L Man 11 53.0 8-3/4
8 DELAGO PATROL M L Yeung · W K Mo

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MISTER DAPPER2. LUCKY ETERNITY+0.75L3. JOYFUL PROSPERITY+1.75L4. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+2.25L5. WINNING STEPS+3.25L6. CHATEAU+3.75L7. SHARPEN BRIGHT+3.75L8. MASTER HERO+4L9. SUPER WISE DRAGON+4L10. CASA COSMO+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MISTER DAPPER (17.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 MISTER DAPPER 17.9% 5.59 1
2 3 MASTER HERO 15.1% 6.62 8
3 12 SUPER WISE DRAGON 12.7% 7.88 9
4 7 LUCKY ETERNITY 10.9% 9.15 2
5 14 SHARPEN BRIGHT 8.4% 11.87 7
6 5 WINNING STEPS 7.1% 14.15 5
7 1 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 6.6% 15.16 4
8 2 IMPERIAL MAGEE 6.2% 16.17 11
9 13 JOYFUL PROSPERITY 4.8% 20.70 3
10 4 CASA COSMO 3.3% 29.88 10
11 6 CHATEAU 3.1% 32.51 6
12 9 GO GO SIXTEEN 2.9% 34.75 13
13 11 NINJA DERBY 1.0% 102.11 12
MISTER DAPPER — wonMASTER HEROSUPER WISE DRAGONLUCKY ETERNITYSHARPEN BRIGHTWINNING STEPSINVINCIBLE MISSILEIMPERIAL MAGEEJOYFUL PROSPERITYCASA COSMOCHATEAUGO GO SIXTEENNINJA DERBY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 57.5

PLACE

7 26

10 22

13 37

QUINELLA

7,10 243.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,10 89.5

7,13 155

10,13 117

FORECAST

10,7 464

TIERCE

10,7,13 4,662

TRIO

7,10,13 1,059

FIRST 4

1,7,10,13 4,726

QUARTET

10,7,13,1 88,524

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

12/9/7 7,730

12/9/10 37,902

4TH DOUBLE

9/7 263.5

9/10 1,101