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Sha Tin · 2023-11-26 · 15:16

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.34.97
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MISTER DAPPER Closed strongly H/SR/XB 1.34.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Whyte 1 5.7 3/4
2 0 LUCKY ETERNITY Led early CP M Chadwick · T P Yung 13 7.5 3/4
3 0 JOYFUL PROSPERITY Closed strongly A Hamelin · C W Chang 4 13.0 1-3/4
4 0 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 2 22.0 2-1/4
5 0 WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC Z Purton · P C Ng 6 7.9 3-1/4
6 0 CHATEAU A Badel · J Size 10 43.0 3-3/4
7 0 SHARPEN BRIGHT Closed strongly B Avdulla · D J Hall 5 5.2 3-3/4
8 0 MASTER HERO CP/XB/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 4.4 4
9 0 SUPER WISE DRAGON TT C Y Ho · W Y So 12 8.3 4
10 0 CASA COSMO CP/XB/TT K C Leung · J Richards 14 66.0 5-1/2
11 0 IMPERIAL MAGEE SR/XB/TT J McDonald · K H Ting 9 18.0 6-3/4
12 0 NINJA DERBY H/XB L Hewitson · D A Hayes 7 67.0 7-3/4
13 0 GO GO SIXTEEN B/TT C L Chau · K L Man 11 53.0 8-3/4
— 0 DELAGO PATROL M L Yeung · W K Mo — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-26 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. MISTER DAPPER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Whyte, won by 3/4, with LUCKY ETERNITY second and JOYFUL PROSPERITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite MASTER HERO finished 8th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MISTER DAPPER—2. LUCKY ETERNITY+0.75L3. JOYFUL PROSPERITY+1.75L4. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+2.25L5. WINNING STEPS+3.25L6. CHATEAU+3.75L7. SHARPEN BRIGHT+3.75L8. MASTER HERO+4L9. SUPER WISE DRAGON+4L10. CASA COSMO+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MISTER DAPPER (17.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MISTER DAPPER 17.9% 5.59 1
2 0 MASTER HERO 15.1% 6.62 8
3 0 SUPER WISE DRAGON 12.7% 7.88 9
4 0 LUCKY ETERNITY 10.9% 9.15 2
5 0 SHARPEN BRIGHT 8.4% 11.87 7
6 0 WINNING STEPS 7.1% 14.15 5
7 0 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 6.6% 15.16 4
8 0 IMPERIAL MAGEE 6.2% 16.17 11
9 0 JOYFUL PROSPERITY 4.8% 20.70 3
10 0 CASA COSMO 3.3% 29.88 10
11 0 CHATEAU 3.1% 32.51 6
12 0 GO GO SIXTEEN 2.9% 34.75 13
13 0 NINJA DERBY 1.0% 102.11 12
MISTER DAPPER — wonMASTER HEROSUPER WISE DRAGONLUCKY ETERNITYSHARPEN BRIGHTWINNING STEPSINVINCIBLE MISSILEIMPERIAL MAGEEJOYFUL PROSPERITYCASA COSMOCHATEAUGO GO SIXTEENNINJA DERBY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 57.5

PLACE

7 26

10 22

13 37

QUINELLA

7,10 243.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,10 89.5

7,13 155

10,13 117

FORECAST

10,7 464

TIERCE

10,7,13 4,662

TRIO

7,10,13 1,059

FIRST 4

1,7,10,13 4,726

QUARTET

10,7,13,1 88,524

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

12/9/7 7,730

12/9/10 37,902

4TH DOUBLE

9/7 263.5

9/10 1,101