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Sha Tin · 2023-11-26 · 16:46

Race 8

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course C 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.66
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 DROMBEG BANNER Closed strongly 1.21.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P C Ng 10 6.8 1-1/2
2 0 FIND MY LOVE Closed strongly H/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 11 43.0 1-1/2
3 0 DANCING CODE Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 4.6 1-3/4
4 0 BEAUTY LIVE Closed strongly CP/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 5 68.0 2
5 0 ERIMO Closed strongly P B Avdulla · J Size 2 28.0 2-1/2
6 0 ALACRITY Closed strongly B/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards 6 3.9 3
7 0 CHING Closed strongly L Hewitson · C W Chang 4 9.3 3-1/2
8 0 IMA SINGLE MAN H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 36.0 3-3/4
9 0 SUPERB BOY TT L Ferraris · K W Lui 8 16.0 4
10 0 SUPREME LUCKY H/TT J McDonald · C S Shum 7 4.5 4-1/4
11 0 FLAMING RABBIT Led early SR/XB E C W Wong · D J Whyte 3 9.7 5-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-26 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. DROMBEG BANNER, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/2, with FIND MY LOVE second and DANCING CODE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite ALACRITY finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DROMBEG BANNER—2. FIND MY LOVE+1.5L3. DANCING CODE+1.75L4. BEAUTY LIVE+2L5. ERIMO+2.5L6. ALACRITY+3L7. CHING+3.5L8. IMA SINGLE MAN+3.75L9. SUPERB BOY+4L10. SUPREME LUCKY+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SUPREME LUCKY (18.7%) finished 10th — the winner DROMBEG BANNER was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SUPREME LUCKY 18.7% 5.33 10
2 0 SUPERB BOY 17.1% 5.83 9
3 0 ALACRITY 14.9% 6.73 6
4 0 DANCING CODE 11.4% 8.80 3
5 0 CHING 10.8% 9.24 7
6 0 FLAMING RABBIT 8.6% 11.56 11
7 0 DROMBEG BANNER 6.6% 15.15 1
8 0 ERIMO 3.2% 31.23 5
9 0 BEAUTY LIVE 3.1% 31.77 4
10 0 FIND MY LOVE 3.0% 33.05 2
11 0 IMA SINGLE MAN 2.5% 40.68 8
SUPREME LUCKYSUPERB BOYALACRITYDANCING CODECHINGFLAMING RABBITDROMBEG BANNER — wonERIMOBEAUTY LIVEFIND MY LOVEIMA SINGLE MAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 68.5

PLACE

2 16.5

3 88

6 24.5

QUINELLA

3,6 1,825.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 182.5

2,6 104

3,6 529

FORECAST

6,3 3,032

TIERCE

6,3,2 17,456

TRIO

2,3,6 2,631

FIRST 4

2,3,5,6 13,678

QUARTET

6,3,2,5 348,546

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

6,9,11/2,3,6 230,518

7TH DOUBLE

6/3 735.5

6/6 3,714.5