Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2023-11-26 · 08:55

Race 8

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course C 11 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-26 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. DROMBEG BANNER, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/2, with FIND MY LOVE second and DANCING CODE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite ALACRITY finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.21.66
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 DROMBEG BANNER Closed strongly 1.21.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P C Ng 10 6.8 1-1/2
2 3 FIND MY LOVE Closed strongly H/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 11 43.0 1-1/2
3 2 DANCING CODE Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 4.6 1-3/4
4 5 BEAUTY LIVE Closed strongly CP/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 5 68.0 2
5 7 ERIMO Closed strongly P B Avdulla · J Size 2 28.0 2-1/2
6 4 ALACRITY Closed strongly B/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards 6 3.9 3
7 10 CHING Closed strongly L Hewitson · C W Chang 4 9.3 3-1/2
8 8 IMA SINGLE MAN H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 36.0 3-3/4
9 11 SUPERB BOY TT L Ferraris · K W Lui 8 16.0 4
10 9 SUPREME LUCKY H/TT J McDonald · C S Shum 7 4.5 4-1/4
11 1 FLAMING RABBIT Led early SR/XB E C W Wong · D J Whyte 3 9.7 5-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DROMBEG BANNER2. FIND MY LOVE+1.5L3. DANCING CODE+1.75L4. BEAUTY LIVE+2L5. ERIMO+2.5L6. ALACRITY+3L7. CHING+3.5L8. IMA SINGLE MAN+3.75L9. SUPERB BOY+4L10. SUPREME LUCKY+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SUPREME LUCKY (18.7%) finished 10th — the winner DROMBEG BANNER was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 SUPREME LUCKY 18.7% 5.33 10
2 11 SUPERB BOY 17.1% 5.83 9
3 4 ALACRITY 14.9% 6.73 6
4 2 DANCING CODE 11.4% 8.80 3
5 10 CHING 10.8% 9.24 7
6 1 FLAMING RABBIT 8.6% 11.56 11
7 6 DROMBEG BANNER 6.6% 15.15 1
8 7 ERIMO 3.2% 31.23 5
9 5 BEAUTY LIVE 3.1% 31.77 4
10 3 FIND MY LOVE 3.0% 33.05 2
11 8 IMA SINGLE MAN 2.5% 40.68 8
SUPREME LUCKYSUPERB BOYALACRITYDANCING CODECHINGFLAMING RABBITDROMBEG BANNER — wonERIMOBEAUTY LIVEFIND MY LOVEIMA SINGLE MAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 68.5

PLACE

2 16.5

3 88

6 24.5

QUINELLA

3,6 1,825.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 182.5

2,6 104

3,6 529

FORECAST

6,3 3,032

TIERCE

6,3,2 17,456

TRIO

2,3,6 2,631

FIRST 4

2,3,5,6 13,678

QUARTET

6,3,2,5 348,546

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

6,9,11/2,3,6 230,518

7TH DOUBLE

6/3 735.5

6/6 3,714.5