Sha Tin · 2023-11-26 · 08:55
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-26 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. DROMBEG BANNER, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/2, with FIND MY LOVE second and DANCING CODE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite ALACRITY finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | DROMBEG BANNER Closed strongly 1.21.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 10 | 6.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | FIND MY LOVE Closed strongly H/TT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 11 | 43.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | DANCING CODE Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 9 | 4.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 5 | BEAUTY LIVE Closed strongly CP/TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 5 | 68.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 7 | ERIMO Closed strongly P B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 2 | 28.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | ALACRITY Closed strongly B/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 6 | 3.9 | 3 |
| 7 | 10 | CHING Closed strongly L Hewitson · C W Chang | L Hewitson | C W Chang | 4 | 9.3 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | IMA SINGLE MAN H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 36.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | SUPERB BOY TT L Ferraris · K W Lui | L Ferraris | K W Lui | 8 | 16.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 9 | SUPREME LUCKY H/TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 7 | 4.5 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | FLAMING RABBIT Led early SR/XB E C W Wong · D J Whyte | E C W Wong | D J Whyte | 3 | 9.7 | 5-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SUPREME LUCKY | 18.7% | 5.33 | 10 |
| 2 | 11 | SUPERB BOY | 17.1% | 5.83 | 9 |
| 3 | 4 | ALACRITY | 14.9% | 6.73 | 6 |
| 4 | 2 | DANCING CODE | 11.4% | 8.80 | 3 |
| 5 | 10 | CHING | 10.8% | 9.24 | 7 |
| 6 | 1 | FLAMING RABBIT | 8.6% | 11.56 | 11 |
| 7 | 6 | DROMBEG BANNER | 6.6% | 15.15 | 1 |
| 8 | 7 | ERIMO | 3.2% | 31.23 | 5 |
| 9 | 5 | BEAUTY LIVE | 3.1% | 31.77 | 4 |
| 10 | 3 | FIND MY LOVE | 3.0% | 33.05 | 2 |
| 11 | 8 | IMA SINGLE MAN | 2.5% | 40.68 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 68.5
PLACE
2 16.5
3 88
6 24.5
QUINELLA
3,6 1,825.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 182.5
2,6 104
3,6 529
FORECAST
6,3 3,032
TIERCE
6,3,2 17,456
TRIO
2,3,6 2,631
FIRST 4
2,3,5,6 13,678
QUARTET
6,3,2,5 348,546
All pools (2 more)
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
6,9,11/2,3,6 230,518
7TH DOUBLE
6/3 735.5
6/6 3,714.5