Sha Tin · 2023-11-26 · 06:20
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-26 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SMOKEY BEAR, ridden by K De Melo and trained by C W Chang, won by 2, with PACKING BOLE second and SELF IMPROVEMENT third. The 2.6 favourite PACKING BOLE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SMOKEY BEAR B/XB/TT 1.08.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · C W Chang | K De Melo | C W Chang | 3 | 20.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | PACKING BOLE TT A Atzeni · C S Shum | A Atzeni | C S Shum | 2 | 2.6 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | SELF IMPROVEMENT B/TT Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 8 | 4.3 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | ADEFILL CP-/B2 J McDonald · P F Yiu | J McDonald | P F Yiu | 4 | 3.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | AMAZING DUCK H- L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 7 | 21.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | FORTUNE WARRIOR CP K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 9 | 16.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | NOT USUAL STAR H/TT L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 12 | 48.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | MARK THE MOMENT V/TT C L Chau · Y S Tsui | C L Chau | Y S Tsui | 11 | 29.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | SEIZING THE MOMENT B-/PC2 L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 5 | 24.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | SAKEWIN CP/TT1 M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 1 | 18.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 5 | PULSAR STRIDER TT1 Y L Chung · T P Yung | Y L Chung | T P Yung | 10 | 46.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 11 | ENFOLDED CP1/H1/TT1 C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 6 | 65.0 | 8-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SELF IMPROVEMENT | 17.0% | 5.87 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | PACKING BOLE | 16.3% | 6.12 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | ADEFILL | 16.3% | 6.14 | 4 |
| 4 | 9 | SMOKEY BEAR | 8.8% | 11.34 | 1 |
| 5 | 12 | FORTUNE WARRIOR | 8.8% | 11.40 | 6 |
| 6 | 7 | MARK THE MOMENT | 8.2% | 12.26 | 8 |
| 7 | 11 | ENFOLDED | 6.5% | 15.28 | 12 |
| 8 | 1 | NOT USUAL STAR | 4.7% | 21.31 | 7 |
| 9 | 5 | PULSAR STRIDER | 4.6% | 21.92 | 11 |
| 10 | 3 | SAKEWIN | 3.3% | 30.35 | 10 |
| 11 | 8 | SEIZING THE MOMENT | 3.0% | 33.79 | 9 |
| 12 | 10 | AMAZING DUCK | 2.5% | 39.60 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 206
PLACE
4 13
6 14
9 35.5
QUINELLA
4,9 296.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 26.5
4,9 94
6,9 102.5
FORECAST
9,4 889
TIERCE
9,4,6 3,024
TRIO
4,6,9 341
FIRST 4
2,4,6,9 140
QUARTET
9,4,6,2 6,229
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
8,11,12/4,6,9 216,539
3RD DOUBLE
12/4 83
12/9 3,955.5