Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2023-12-29 · 11:15

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 2200m Course C+3 9 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-29 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. GREEN LASER, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by W Y So, won by 3/4, with NICE BIRDIE second and BOOM ALLIANCE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite HAPPY HERO finished 5th.

Result

Official · 2.17.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 GREEN LASER Closed strongly PC/TT 2.17.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · W Y So 9 37.0 3/4
2 2 NICE BIRDIE Closed strongly TT C L Chau · C S Shum 8 15.0 3/4
3 3 BOOM ALLIANCE SR/XB/TT Z Purton · D J Whyte 6 6.2 1
4 8 GOLDEN FAIRY Led early A Badel · W Y So 4 12.0 1-1/4
5 4 HAPPY HERO B H Bowman · M Newnham 1 3.4 2
6 5 DIAMOND WINNER H J McDonald · J Size 2 5.0 2-1/4
7 6 LOYAL AMBITION K De Melo · C Fownes 5 4.4 2-3/4
8 1 AI ONE H/TT B Avdulla · K H Ting 7 7.6 4-1/2
9 7 MIGHTY STAR H-/B/TT- A Atzeni · C W Chang 3 33.0 5

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GREEN LASER2. NICE BIRDIE+0.75L3. BOOM ALLIANCE+1L4. GOLDEN FAIRY+1.25L5. HAPPY HERO+2L6. DIAMOND WINNER+2.25L7. LOYAL AMBITION+2.75L8. AI ONE+4.5L9. MIGHTY STAR+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BOOM ALLIANCE (23.6%) finished 3rd — the winner GREEN LASER was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 BOOM ALLIANCE 23.6% 4.24 3
2 4 HAPPY HERO 21.9% 4.56 5
3 5 DIAMOND WINNER 14.2% 7.04 6
4 6 LOYAL AMBITION 10.5% 9.53 7
5 7 MIGHTY STAR 8.6% 11.67 9
6 2 NICE BIRDIE 7.7% 13.07 2
7 8 GOLDEN FAIRY 5.7% 17.42 4
8 1 AI ONE 4.9% 20.26 8
9 9 GREEN LASER 2.9% 34.87 1
BOOM ALLIANCEHAPPY HERODIAMOND WINNERLOYAL AMBITIONMIGHTY STARNICE BIRDIEGOLDEN FAIRYAI ONEGREEN LASER — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 378.5

PLACE

2 41.5

3 21

9 75.5

QUINELLA

2,9 1,497.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 132.5

2,9 391.5

3,9 251.5

FORECAST

9,2 2,907

TIERCE

9,2,3 21,437

TRIO

2,3,9 3,286

FIRST 4

2,3,8,9 4,336

QUARTET

9,2,3,8 138,123