Happy Valley · 2023-12-29 · 12:15
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-29 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SUPER BABY, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by 1-1/2, with TURIN WARRIOR second and AFFIRM third. The winner led throughout. The 2.2 favourite TURIN WARRIOR finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SUPER BABY Wire to wire B/TT 1.40.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 6 | 25.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | TURIN WARRIOR Closed strongly B/XB Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 1 | 2.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 10 | AFFIRM TT M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 7 | 17.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | SNOWALOT B J McDonald · D A Hayes | J McDonald | D A Hayes | 2 | 4.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | MR ALADDIN Closed strongly CP K De Melo · P C Ng | K De Melo | P C Ng | 10 | 11.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | PALACE PAL Closed strongly V A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 12 | 15.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | RELIABLE PROFIT Closed strongly B/TT B Avdulla · C S Shum | B Avdulla | C S Shum | 11 | 53.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 12 | DIAMOND DIAMOND L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 4 | 13.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | BEAU GOSSE H/B1/TT A Atzeni · D J Whyte | A Atzeni | D J Whyte | 9 | 26.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | MERCHANT PRINCE B-/V1/TT M L Yeung · J Richards | M L Yeung | J Richards | 8 | 67.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 2 | YOUNG VICTORY B/TT C L Chau · W Y So | C L Chau | W Y So | 3 | 40.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | BEAUTY MISSION SR/V/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 5 | 10.0 | 7-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | TURIN WARRIOR | 30.2% | 3.31 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | SNOWALOT | 14.7% | 6.80 | 4 |
| 3 | 5 | MR ALADDIN | 10.8% | 9.25 | 5 |
| 4 | 11 | PALACE PAL | 8.5% | 11.81 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | SUPER BABY | 7.4% | 13.53 | 1 |
| 6 | 7 | BEAUTY MISSION | 7.1% | 14.11 | 12 |
| 7 | 8 | BEAU GOSSE | 5.4% | 18.41 | 9 |
| 8 | 12 | DIAMOND DIAMOND | 5.2% | 19.14 | 8 |
| 9 | 9 | RELIABLE PROFIT | 4.2% | 23.60 | 7 |
| 10 | 2 | YOUNG VICTORY | 3.3% | 29.85 | 11 |
| 11 | 10 | AFFIRM | 2.6% | 39.05 | 3 |
| 12 | 3 | MERCHANT PRINCE | 0.6% | 175.96 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 251
PLACE
4 11
6 62
10 43
QUINELLA
4,6 286.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 110
4,10 69
6,10 457
FORECAST
6,4 715
TIERCE
6,4,10 6,441
TRIO
4,6,10 1,122
FIRST 4
1,4,6,10 1,065
QUARTET
6,4,10,1 40,220
All pools (1 more)
2ND DOUBLE
2/4 18
2/6 1,427