Happy Valley · 2023-12-29 · 14:20
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-29 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ARMOUR EAGLE, ridden by J McDonald and trained by J Richards, won by 1/2, with BON'S A PEARLA second and STREET CONQUEROR third. Victory came as the 3.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | ARMOUR EAGLE B/XB/TT 1.10.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · J Richards | J McDonald | J Richards | 3 | 3.9 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | BON'S A PEARLA B A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 8 | 27.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 10 | STREET CONQUEROR TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 1 | 12.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | WATCH BUDDY A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 5 | 5.2 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | VIVA CHALEUR TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 10 | 13.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL B/XB M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 2 | 20.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 7 | 4.8 | 2 |
| 8 | 9 | DENFIELD TT B Avdulla · C S Shum | B Avdulla | C S Shum | 4 | 7.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | LIGHTNING BOLT TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 6 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | GOLDEN EMPIRE B L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 9 | 18.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 6 | BEAUTY GLORY CP/H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 11 | 19.0 | 5-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | WATCH BUDDY | 16.6% | 6.04 | 4 |
| 2 | 8 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO | 16.3% | 6.13 | 7 |
| 3 | 9 | DENFIELD | 15.8% | 6.34 | 8 |
| 4 | 5 | ARMOUR EAGLE | 9.4% | 10.65 | 1 |
| 5 | 1 | LIGHTNING BOLT | 9.1% | 11.02 | 9 |
| 6 | 2 | VIVA CHALEUR | 8.2% | 12.20 | 5 |
| 7 | 4 | BON'S A PEARLA | 7.5% | 13.26 | 2 |
| 8 | 3 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL | 5.8% | 17.28 | 6 |
| 9 | 10 | STREET CONQUEROR | 4.0% | 25.24 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | GOLDEN EMPIRE | 3.9% | 25.63 | 10 |
| 11 | 6 | BEAUTY GLORY | 3.5% | 28.66 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 39
PLACE
4 63.5
5 16.5
10 43
QUINELLA
4,5 514
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 156
4,10 342.5
5,10 91
FORECAST
5,4 863
TIERCE
5,4,10 9,007
TRIO
4,5,10 1,946
FIRST 4
4,5,10,11 2,444
QUARTET
5,4,10,11 48,007
All pools (1 more)
6TH DOUBLE
6/4 75.5
6/5 100