Happy Valley · 2023-12-29 · 13:50
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-29 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ERNEST FEELING, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by J Richards, won by 1/2, with SUPER EAGLE second and PO ON WAY third. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | ERNEST FEELING B/TT 1.10.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 1 | 2.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 12 | SUPER EAGLE TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 12 | 13.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 10 | PO ON WAY B M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 2 | 9.9 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | CHEONG FAT H/PC Z Purton · C W Chang | Z Purton | C W Chang | 6 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | TOGEPI B/TT L Ferraris · W K Mo | L Ferraris | W K Mo | 8 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | LUCKY QUALITY TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 9 | 18.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | PARTY WARRIOR L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 7 | 8.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 11 | HARMONY N HOME C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 3 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | EVER VICTORIOUS TT1 M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 5 | 74.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | SIGHT VICTORY H B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 10 | 86.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 5 | GLORY B H K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 4 | 36.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 2 | E UNIVERSE TT H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 11 | 10.0 | 7-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | ERNEST FEELING | 13.6% | 7.36 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | PARTY WARRIOR | 13.5% | 7.40 | 7 |
| 3 | 7 | LUCKY QUALITY | 12.8% | 7.84 | 6 |
| 4 | 12 | SUPER EAGLE | 10.6% | 9.44 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | TOGEPI | 10.1% | 9.92 | 5 |
| 6 | 11 | HARMONY N HOME | 9.0% | 11.09 | 8 |
| 7 | 10 | PO ON WAY | 8.9% | 11.26 | 3 |
| 8 | 2 | E UNIVERSE | 6.2% | 16.08 | 12 |
| 9 | 4 | EVER VICTORIOUS | 5.7% | 17.51 | 9 |
| 10 | 9 | CHEONG FAT | 5.2% | 19.39 | 4 |
| 11 | 5 | GLORY B | 3.8% | 26.38 | 11 |
| 12 | 8 | SIGHT VICTORY | 0.7% | 141.13 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 20.5
PLACE
6 11.5
10 25.5
12 47.5
QUINELLA
6,12 215
QUINELLA PLACE
6,10 39
6,12 81
10,12 245.5
FORECAST
6,12 301
TIERCE
6,12,10 2,315
TRIO
6,10,12 521
FIRST 4
6,9,10,12 1,118
QUARTET
6,12,10,9 15,749
All pools (3 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,12/6,10,12 72,137
5TH DOUBLE
12/6 75
12/12 76
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
3,5,12/3,4,12/Any Combination 281,930