Happy Valley · 2023-12-29 · 13:15
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-29 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LYRICAL MOTION, ridden by A Badel and trained by C Fownes, won by 2, with HAPPY TRIO second and HIGH RISE SOLDIER third. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | LYRICAL MOTION B/TT 1.09.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 1 | 3.2 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | HAPPY TRIO B L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 7 | 17.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER B Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 11 | 15.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 11 | COLONEL V M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 6 | 15.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | WOOD ON FIRE H/TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 9 | 32.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | TATTENHAM K De Melo · P C Ng | K De Melo | P C Ng | 3 | 13.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | KILINDINI H/TT J McDonald · W K Mo | J McDonald | W K Mo | 8 | 6.3 | 5 |
| 8 | 6 | WINNING HEART B/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz | L Hewitson | A S Cruz | 5 | 13.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | HERO STAR TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 12 | 43.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | SEE U AGAIN C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 4 | 4.9 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | FURY AND GOLD A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 10 | 55.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 5 | GORGEOUS VITALITY CP H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 2 | 7.4 | 8-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | LYRICAL MOTION | 23.4% | 4.27 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | SEE U AGAIN | 12.1% | 8.26 | 10 |
| 3 | 5 | GORGEOUS VITALITY | 11.0% | 9.09 | 12 |
| 4 | 2 | KILINDINI | 9.0% | 11.16 | 7 |
| 5 | 3 | HAPPY TRIO | 8.5% | 11.71 | 2 |
| 6 | 4 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER | 7.9% | 12.63 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | WINNING HEART | 7.6% | 13.09 | 8 |
| 8 | 9 | TATTENHAM | 5.8% | 17.23 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | COLONEL | 5.2% | 19.16 | 4 |
| 10 | 10 | HERO STAR | 3.9% | 25.64 | 9 |
| 11 | 1 | WOOD ON FIRE | 2.9% | 34.81 | 5 |
| 12 | 7 | FURY AND GOLD | 2.6% | 37.83 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 32.5
PLACE
3 47.5
4 39
12 15
QUINELLA
3,12 311
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 290
3,12 85
4,12 102
FORECAST
12,3 518
TIERCE
12,3,4 4,413
TRIO
3,4,12 1,206
FIRST 4
3,4,11,12 3,626
QUARTET
12,3,4,11 57,719
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
6/12/3 18,627
6/12/12 45,238
4TH DOUBLE
12/3 1,481
12/12 1,756.5