Happy Valley · 2023-12-29 · 11:45
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-29 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. VALHALLA, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with WIND SPEEDER second and HERCULES third. Victory came as the 4.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | VALHALLA XB/TT 1.10.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 2 | 4.3 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | WIND SPEEDER B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 5 | 18.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | HERCULES B/TT A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 3 | 7.5 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | AUGUST MOON PC-/B2/TT K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 6 | 23.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | VIVA A LA P-/B1/TT K De Melo · K L Man | K De Melo | K L Man | 8 | 6.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | GENERAL ACE CP/XB L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 11 | 36.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | EASY TWO H/V/TT A Atzeni · K H Ting | A Atzeni | K H Ting | 4 | 11.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | DOUBLE SHOW B/TT J McDonald · D J Whyte | J McDonald | D J Whyte | 10 | 9.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 9 | MILLENNIUM FALCON TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 12 | 20.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | GET THE MONIES B2/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 1 | 5.9 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | HAPPILY FRIENDS V Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 7 | 7.7 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | CRAIG'S MASTER B-/V1/H2/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 9 | 39.0 | 17 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | VALHALLA | 21.1% | 4.73 | 1 |
| 2 | 11 | HAPPILY FRIENDS | 15.9% | 6.30 | 11 |
| 3 | 8 | DOUBLE SHOW | 9.9% | 10.13 | 8 |
| 4 | 5 | GET THE MONIES | 8.9% | 11.24 | 10 |
| 5 | 1 | HERCULES | 8.8% | 11.31 | 3 |
| 6 | 9 | MILLENNIUM FALCON | 7.9% | 12.60 | 9 |
| 7 | 10 | EASY TWO | 6.6% | 15.05 | 7 |
| 8 | 12 | VIVA A LA | 6.1% | 16.27 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | AUGUST MOON | 5.8% | 17.29 | 4 |
| 10 | 3 | WIND SPEEDER | 4.2% | 23.79 | 2 |
| 11 | 6 | GENERAL ACE | 3.9% | 25.92 | 6 |
| 12 | 7 | CRAIG'S MASTER | 0.8% | 125.21 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 43
PLACE
1 21.5
2 18
3 47.5
QUINELLA
2,3 385
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 56.5
1,3 207.5
2,3 127
FORECAST
2,3 863
TIERCE
2,3,1 3,420
TRIO
1,2,3 494
FIRST 4
1,2,3,4 1,609
QUARTET
2,3,1,4 34,330
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
9/2 1,940
9/3 709.5
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,9/1,2,3 287,297