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Happy Valley · 2023-12-29 · 11:45

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-29 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. VALHALLA, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with WIND SPEEDER second and HERCULES third. Victory came as the 4.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.48
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 VALHALLA XB/TT 1.10.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes 2 4.3 1/2
2 3 WIND SPEEDER B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 5 18.0 1/2
3 1 HERCULES B/TT A Badel · C H Yip 3 7.5 3/4
4 4 AUGUST MOON PC-/B2/TT K C Leung · J Richards 6 23.0 1-1/4
5 12 VIVA A LA P-/B1/TT K De Melo · K L Man 8 6.8 2-1/4
6 6 GENERAL ACE CP/XB L Hewitson · K W Lui 11 36.0 2-3/4
7 10 EASY TWO H/V/TT A Atzeni · K H Ting 4 11.0 3-1/2
8 8 DOUBLE SHOW B/TT J McDonald · D J Whyte 10 9.0 4-1/4
9 9 MILLENNIUM FALCON TT C L Chau · T P Yung 12 20.0 4-1/2
10 5 GET THE MONIES B2/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 1 5.9 4-3/4
11 11 HAPPILY FRIENDS V Z Purton · W Y So 7 7.7 7
12 7 CRAIG'S MASTER B-/V1/H2/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 9 39.0 17

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VALHALLA2. WIND SPEEDER+0.5L3. HERCULES+0.75L4. AUGUST MOON+1.25L5. VIVA A LA+2.25L6. GENERAL ACE+2.75L7. EASY TWO+3.5L8. DOUBLE SHOW+4.25L9. MILLENNIUM FALCON+4.5L10. GET THE MONIES+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick VALHALLA (21.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 VALHALLA 21.1% 4.73 1
2 11 HAPPILY FRIENDS 15.9% 6.30 11
3 8 DOUBLE SHOW 9.9% 10.13 8
4 5 GET THE MONIES 8.9% 11.24 10
5 1 HERCULES 8.8% 11.31 3
6 9 MILLENNIUM FALCON 7.9% 12.60 9
7 10 EASY TWO 6.6% 15.05 7
8 12 VIVA A LA 6.1% 16.27 5
9 4 AUGUST MOON 5.8% 17.29 4
10 3 WIND SPEEDER 4.2% 23.79 2
11 6 GENERAL ACE 3.9% 25.92 6
12 7 CRAIG'S MASTER 0.8% 125.21 12
VALHALLA — wonHAPPILY FRIENDSDOUBLE SHOWGET THE MONIESHERCULESMILLENNIUM FALCONEASY TWOVIVA A LAAUGUST MOONWIND SPEEDERGENERAL ACECRAIG'S MASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 43

PLACE

1 21.5

2 18

3 47.5

QUINELLA

2,3 385

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 56.5

1,3 207.5

2,3 127

FORECAST

2,3 863

TIERCE

2,3,1 3,420

TRIO

1,2,3 494

FIRST 4

1,2,3,4 1,609

QUARTET

2,3,1,4 34,330

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

9/2 1,940

9/3 709.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,9/1,2,3 287,297