Happy Valley · 2024-01-10 · 11:15

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1000m Course B 9 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-10 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. MODEST GENTLEMAN, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by K W Lui, won by 1, with HAPPY TANGO second and AUGUST MOON third. The 3.4 favourite HAPPY HORSE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 0.58.01

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	MODEST GENTLEMAN PC-/B2/TT 0.58.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · K W Lui	A Atzeni	K W Lui	1	128 lb	4.2	1
2	7	HAPPY TANGO B L Hewitson · Y S Tsui	L Hewitson	Y S Tsui	4	128 lb	6.4	1
3	2	AUGUST MOON B-/BO2/TT Y L Chung · J Richards	Y L Chung	J Richards	7	126 lb	12.0	1-3/4
4	3	MULTIMORE TT E C W Wong · T P Yung	E C W Wong	T P Yung	9	121 lb	11.0	2-3/4
5	1	HAPPY HORSE H/P/TT H Bowman · K L Man	H Bowman	K L Man	3	135 lb	3.4	4
6	4	MAGIC TRAVELLER B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So	M Chadwick	W Y So	6	130 lb	56.0	4-3/4
7	6	GOODMANSHIP B/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte	K Teetan	D J Whyte	5	128 lb	3.8	4-3/4
8	5	FINGERS CROSSED B/XB/TT2 K De Melo · M Newnham	K De Melo	M Newnham	2	129 lb	17.0	5-1/4
9	9	PERFECT ROCK B/TT1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui	H T Mo	Y S Tsui	8	113 lb	40.0	6

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick HAPPY HORSE (28.2%) finished 5th — the winner MODEST GENTLEMAN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	HAPPY HORSE	28.2%	3.55	5	3.4
2	8	MODEST GENTLEMAN	20.6%	4.85	1	4.2
3	7	HAPPY TANGO	15.9%	6.28	2	6.4
4	3	MULTIMORE	9.0%	11.09	4	11.0
5	2	AUGUST MOON	8.4%	11.86	3	12.0
6	6	GOODMANSHIP	7.8%	12.89	7	3.8
7	5	FINGERS CROSSED	7.1%	14.04	8	17.0
8	4	MAGIC TRAVELLER	1.9%	52.69	6	56.0
9	9	PERFECT ROCK	1.1%	91.69	9	40.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 42

PLACE

2 31.5

7 18.5

8 15

QUINELLA

7,8 121

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 85

2,8 72.5

7,8 44.5

FORECAST

8,7 247

TIERCE

8,7,2 1,580

TRIO

2,7,8 336

FIRST 4

2,3,7,8 777

QUARTET

8,7,2,3 14,091

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 1000m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99