Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2024-01-10 · 14:20

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course B 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-10 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. PRIME MINISTER, ridden by M F Poon and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with LEAN HERO second and SPLENDID LIVING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite ESCAPE ROUTE finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.50.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 PRIME MINISTER Closed strongly TT 1.50.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · P F Yiu 8 37.0 SH
2 6 LEAN HERO Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 1 6.7 SH
3 1 SPLENDID LIVING Led early CP/TT L Hewitson · P F Yiu 5 22.0 SH
4 7 MAJESTIC VICTORY TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 18.0 3/4
5 3 TURIN MASCOT Closed strongly SR-/PC1/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 9 6.7 1-1/4
6 11 EIGHTEEN PALMS B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 12 16.0 1-3/4
7 5 ESCAPE ROUTE H H Bowman · J Size 4 3.9 2-1/4
8 12 GALLANT HERO Closed strongly K Teetan · D J Hall 11 22.0 2-3/4
9 9 INTREPID WINNER B K De Melo · C W Chang 6 7.6 3-1/4
10 8 UNIVERSAL HORIZON B1 A Atzeni · K W Lui 2 10.0 3-1/2
11 2 AWESOME FLUKE TT K H Chan · C Fownes 10 17.0 4
12 4 ROMANTIC LAOS H/TT C L Chau · W K Mo 7 6.8 6-3/4
0 S J TOURBILLON H Bentley · D J Whyte

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRIME MINISTER2. LEAN HERO+0.1L3. SPLENDID LIVING+0.1L4. MAJESTIC VICTORY+0.75L5. TURIN MASCOT+1.25L6. EIGHTEEN PALMS+1.75L7. ESCAPE ROUTE+2.25L8. GALLANT HERO+2.75L9. INTREPID WINNER+3.25L10. UNIVERSAL HORIZON+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LEAN HERO (17.7%) finished 2nd — the winner PRIME MINISTER was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 LEAN HERO 17.7% 5.65 2
2 3 TURIN MASCOT 14.0% 7.17 5
3 4 ROMANTIC LAOS 12.3% 8.15 12
4 8 UNIVERSAL HORIZON 10.9% 9.19 10
5 5 ESCAPE ROUTE 9.4% 10.65 7
6 11 EIGHTEEN PALMS 6.7% 14.86 6
7 12 GALLANT HERO 6.7% 15.01 8
8 9 INTREPID WINNER 6.5% 15.41 9
9 1 SPLENDID LIVING 4.9% 20.38 3
10 7 MAJESTIC VICTORY 4.6% 21.62 4
11 2 AWESOME FLUKE 3.9% 25.35 11
12 10 PRIME MINISTER 2.4% 41.06 1
LEAN HEROTURIN MASCOTROMANTIC LAOSUNIVERSAL HORIZONESCAPE ROUTEEIGHTEEN PALMSGALLANT HEROINTREPID WINNERSPLENDID LIVINGMAJESTIC VICTORYAWESOME FLUKEPRIME MINISTER — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 374.5

PLACE

1 61

6 21.5

10 94

QUINELLA

6,10 1,270

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 222

1,10 807.5

6,10 364

FORECAST

10,6 2,979

TIERCE

10,6,1 43,300

TRIO

1,6,10 6,753

FIRST 4

1,6,7,10 16,025

QUARTET

10,6,1,7 564,694

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

9/6 32.5

9/10 2,361