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Happy Valley · 2024-01-10 · 12:15

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course B 11 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-10 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. RED HARE KING, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with AMAZING TEENS second and SAMARKAND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.40.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 RED HARE KING Closed strongly TT 1.40.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · A S Cruz 1 2.4 N
2 3 AMAZING TEENS Closed strongly P-/H/TT A Atzeni · J Size 9 25.0 N
3 1 SAMARKAND Closed strongly CP/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes 3 8.3 2-1/4
4 5 SUPER BABY B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 4 6.8 2-1/2
5 10 BEAU GOSSE Closed strongly B/H/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte 2 8.8 3
6 7 DOUBLE WIN Led early XB/TT A Hamelin · T P Yung 11 17.0 3-1/4
7 9 KILLER INSTINCT Closed strongly B2/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 10 26.0 4-3/4
8 2 TOTAL POWER B H Bowman · D J Hall 5 6.5 6-1/2
9 11 AFFIRM TT M F Poon · P F Yiu 8 10.0 6-3/4
10 6 YOUNG VICTORY B/TT Y L Chung · W Y So 6 35.0 9
11 8 TOURBILLON FLOW B1/TT A Badel · C S Shum 7 103.0 16-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RED HARE KING2. AMAZING TEENS+0.05L3. SAMARKAND+2.25L4. SUPER BABY+2.5L5. BEAU GOSSE+3L6. DOUBLE WIN+3.25L7. KILLER INSTINCT+4.75L8. TOTAL POWER+6.5L9. AFFIRM+6.75L10. YOUNG VICTORY+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SAMARKAND (19.6%) finished 3rd — the winner RED HARE KING was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SAMARKAND 19.6% 5.10 3
2 2 TOTAL POWER 16.8% 5.95 8
3 5 SUPER BABY 15.1% 6.64 4
4 4 RED HARE KING 14.0% 7.12 1
5 10 BEAU GOSSE 7.4% 13.59 5
6 3 AMAZING TEENS 6.7% 14.85 2
7 7 DOUBLE WIN 6.6% 15.21 6
8 11 AFFIRM 6.2% 16.13 9
9 9 KILLER INSTINCT 4.9% 20.27 7
10 6 YOUNG VICTORY 2.1% 47.10 10
11 8 TOURBILLON FLOW 0.6% 176.66 11
SAMARKANDTOTAL POWERSUPER BABYRED HARE KING — wonBEAU GOSSEAMAZING TEENSDOUBLE WINAFFIRMKILLER INSTINCTYOUNG VICTORYTOURBILLON FLOW

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 24.5

PLACE

1 23

3 55.5

4 11.5

QUINELLA

3,4 281

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 246

1,4 35.5

3,4 98.5

FORECAST

4,3 397

TIERCE

4,3,1 2,094

TRIO

1,3,4 475

FIRST 4

1,3,4,5 817

QUARTET

4,3,1,5 13,869

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/3 55

2/4 36