Happy Valley · 2024-01-10 · 12:45
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-10 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MEGA BONUS, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with HIGH RISE SOLDIER second and GREAT ACHIEVER third. The 4.2 favourite HIGH RISE SOLDIER finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | MEGA BONUS CP-/V2 1.10.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · P F Yiu | L Ferraris | P F Yiu | 11 | 18.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 4.2 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | GREAT ACHIEVER C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 12.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | TALENTS SUPREMO TT H Bowman · W K Mo | H Bowman | W K Mo | 10 | 6.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | HARMONY N HOME M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 7 | 18.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | MR GOOD VIBES K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 8 | 85.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | VALHALLA XB/TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 9 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | COUNTRY DANCER P1 B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 12 | 61.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | GALLANT CROWN B K H Chan · D A Hayes | K H Chan | D A Hayes | 4 | 43.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | SPEEDY CHARIOT SR/TT1 K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 3 | 5.8 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | SEA SAPPHIRE CP A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 6 | 5.6 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 1 | WOOD ON FIRE H/TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 5 | 6.6 | 8-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | VALHALLA | 16.4% | 6.11 | 7 |
| 2 | 4 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER | 16.3% | 6.13 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | TALENTS SUPREMO | 13.4% | 7.48 | 4 |
| 4 | 9 | SEA SAPPHIRE | 12.2% | 8.21 | 11 |
| 5 | 7 | SPEEDY CHARIOT | 11.3% | 8.86 | 10 |
| 6 | 2 | GALLANT CROWN | 6.3% | 15.81 | 9 |
| 7 | 12 | HARMONY N HOME | 5.7% | 17.68 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 | GREAT ACHIEVER | 5.3% | 18.99 | 3 |
| 9 | 1 | WOOD ON FIRE | 4.7% | 21.09 | 12 |
| 10 | 3 | MEGA BONUS | 3.6% | 27.99 | 1 |
| 11 | 11 | MR GOOD VIBES | 3.0% | 33.86 | 6 |
| 12 | 8 | COUNTRY DANCER | 2.0% | 50.14 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 185.5
PLACE
3 50
4 16
5 33.5
QUINELLA
3,4 335.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 123.5
3,5 318.5
4,5 74
FORECAST
3,4 817
TIERCE
3,4,5 6,070
TRIO
3,4,5 863
FIRST 4
3,4,5,6 1,385
QUARTET
3,4,5,6 42,118
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,4/3,4,5 59,453
3RD DOUBLE
4/3 552.5
4/4 17