Happy Valley · 2024-01-17 · 11:45
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-17 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SUPER CONTENTED, ridden by K De Melo and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with MR ALADDIN second and SERANGOON third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | SUPER CONTENTED Wire to wire TT 1.51.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · C Fownes | K De Melo | C Fownes | 5 | 2.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 7 | MR ALADDIN Closed strongly CP K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 9 | 8.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | SERANGOON Closed strongly CP/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 1 | 15.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | PALACE PAL Closed strongly V M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 4 | 10.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | FOREVER GLORIOUS B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 6.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 10 | 5.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | PRECISE EXPRESS H Y L Chung · P F Yiu | Y L Chung | P F Yiu | 2 | 16.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | FLYING SILVER TT B Avdulla · C S Shum | B Avdulla | C S Shum | 3 | 11.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | CASA COSMO CP-/XB-/B2/TT L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 7 | 35.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 3 | LOOKING COOL CP A Atzeni · F C Lor | A Atzeni | F C Lor | 6 | 36.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 11 | VINCY SR/TT M L Yeung · C H Yip | M L Yeung | C H Yip | 11 | 59.0 | 9-3/4 |
| — | 2 | CONCERTO L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | FOREVER GLORIOUS | 17.0% | 5.89 | 5 |
| 2 | 9 | STRONGEST BOY | 16.3% | 6.15 | 6 |
| 3 | 7 | MR ALADDIN | 12.7% | 7.85 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | SERANGOON | 12.7% | 7.90 | 3 |
| 5 | 10 | SUPER CONTENTED | 12.5% | 8.00 | 1 |
| 6 | 3 | LOOKING COOL | 7.7% | 12.95 | 10 |
| 7 | 12 | PALACE PAL | 7.5% | 13.42 | 4 |
| 8 | 8 | FLYING SILVER | 5.0% | 20.16 | 8 |
| 9 | 1 | PRECISE EXPRESS | 4.3% | 23.20 | 7 |
| 10 | 6 | CASA COSMO | 3.3% | 30.06 | 9 |
| 11 | 11 | VINCY | 1.1% | 89.46 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 26.5
PLACE
4 40
7 25.5
10 12
QUINELLA
7,10 118
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 151
4,10 79.5
7,10 48.5
FORECAST
10,7 199
TIERCE
10,7,4 1,781
TRIO
4,7,10 495
FIRST 4
4,7,10,12 914
QUARTET
10,7,4,12 12,974
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
5/2,10 231.5
5/7 80
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
10>2,3,5/4,7>2,10 18,753