Happy Valley · 2024-01-17 · 12:55
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-17 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY UNITED, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by 1-1/4, with HEROIC MASTER second and ATOMIC ENERGY third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | HAPPY UNITED P/TT 0.57.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 4 | 2.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 2 | HEROIC MASTER CP/TT A Atzeni · F C Lor | A Atzeni | F C Lor | 6 | 6.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | ATOMIC ENERGY TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 5 | 7.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 6 | NICCONI COUNTY XB/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 1 | 6.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY H1/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 8 | 13.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 10 | FORTUNE WARRIOR CP-/B1 K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 9 | 7.7 | 2 |
| 7 | 7 | CHAIN OF GOLD H1/TT1 L Hewitson · W K Mo | L Hewitson | W K Mo | 3 | 33.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | HARMONY N BLESSED B/TT B Avdulla · D A Hayes | B Avdulla | D A Hayes | 2 | 7.2 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | BEAUTY GLORY CP/H/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 7 | 27.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | ENFOLDED CP-/H-/TT K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 10 | 95.0 | 7-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | HAPPY UNITED | 30.2% | 3.31 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | HEROIC MASTER | 15.9% | 6.29 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | ATOMIC ENERGY | 12.8% | 7.82 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | FORTUNE WARRIOR | 11.9% | 8.42 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | NICCONI COUNTY | 9.8% | 10.25 | 4 |
| 6 | 1 | HARMONY N BLESSED | 6.5% | 15.44 | 8 |
| 7 | 3 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY | 5.1% | 19.51 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | CHAIN OF GOLD | 3.6% | 27.55 | 7 |
| 9 | 4 | BEAUTY GLORY | 3.6% | 27.94 | 9 |
| 10 | 8 | ENFOLDED | 0.6% | 157.04 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 28
PLACE
2 20
5 22.5
9 13
QUINELLA
2,9 112
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 71.5
2,9 43.5
5,9 42.5
FORECAST
9,2 190
TIERCE
9,2,5 569
TRIO
2,5,9 137
FIRST 4
2,5,6,9 227
QUARTET
9,2,5,6 3,106
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
5,11,12/2,5,9 643,958
3RD DOUBLE
11/2 52.5
11/9 214.5