Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2024-01-17 · 12:15

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-17 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CRYSTAL POWERFUL, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by W K Mo, won by 1, with FLYING PHANTOM second and SUPER ELITE third. The 3.0 favourite SHINKANSEN finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.10.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 CRYSTAL POWERFUL B/H/TT 1.10.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · W K Mo 6 6.3 1
2 5 FLYING PHANTOM H B Avdulla · J Size 9 13.0 1
3 12 SUPER ELITE CP/H/XB M L Yeung · P F Yiu 10 59.0 2-1/4
4 6 CHEONG FAT H/PC Z Purton · C W Chang 4 5.8 2-1/4
5 7 MULTIDARLING TT H T Mo · T P Yung 5 8.5 2-3/4
6 9 DAN ATTACK H-/P-/XB-/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 11 41.0 3
7 3 TATTENHAM L Ferraris · P C Ng 8 17.0 3
8 1 NORDIC COMBINED B/TT H Bentley · W Y So 1 8.3 3-1/2
9 2 YOUTH POWER H K H Chan · D A Hayes 12 116.0 3-3/4
10 8 SHINKANSEN H/SR/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte 2 3.0 3-3/4
11 4 BRAVE WITNESS TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 3 15.0 4
12 10 MIRACLES B K C Leung · K L Man 7 13.0 9
0 TOP TOP TEA Y L Chung · C H Yip

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CRYSTAL POWERFUL2. FLYING PHANTOM+1L3. SUPER ELITE+2.25L4. CHEONG FAT+2.25L5. MULTIDARLING+2.75L6. DAN ATTACK+3L7. TATTENHAM+3L8. NORDIC COMBINED+3.5L9. YOUTH POWER+3.75L10. SHINKANSEN+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SHINKANSEN (28.4%) finished 10th — the winner CRYSTAL POWERFUL was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 SHINKANSEN 28.4% 3.52 10
2 1 NORDIC COMBINED 11.6% 8.59 8
3 11 CRYSTAL POWERFUL 10.8% 9.27 1
4 10 MIRACLES 10.7% 9.34 12
5 6 CHEONG FAT 10.6% 9.45 4
6 7 MULTIDARLING 7.7% 13.07 5
7 4 BRAVE WITNESS 6.4% 15.65 11
8 3 TATTENHAM 6.3% 15.92 7
9 5 FLYING PHANTOM 3.6% 28.01 2
10 12 SUPER ELITE 2.0% 51.28 3
11 9 DAN ATTACK 1.4% 72.57 6
12 2 YOUTH POWER 0.6% 158.49 9
SHINKANSENNORDIC COMBINEDCRYSTAL POWERFUL — wonMIRACLESCHEONG FATMULTIDARLINGBRAVE WITNESSTATTENHAMFLYING PHANTOMSUPER ELITEDAN ATTACKYOUTH POWER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 63.5

PLACE

5 40

11 22

12 131

QUINELLA

5,11 544.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,11 162.5

5,12 819.5

11,12 533.5

FORECAST

11,5 1,104

TIERCE

11,5,12 27,412

TRIO

5,11,12 6,264

FIRST 4

5,6,11,12 11,736

QUARTET

11,5,12,6 347,849

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2,10/5 140

2,10/11 138.5