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Happy Valley · 2024-01-17 · 15:00

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-17 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WATCH BUDDY, ridden by H Bentley and trained by P F Yiu, won by HD, with RAGING BLIZZARD second and SUGAR SUGAR third. The 1.7 favourite RAGING BLIZZARD finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.21
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 WATCH BUDDY 1.10.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · P F Yiu 2 7.5 HD
2 5 RAGING BLIZZARD K Teetan · J Size 3 1.7 HD
3 6 SUGAR SUGAR B-/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 1 8.1 1-3/4
4 2 ARMOUR EAGLE B/XB/TT A Atzeni · J Richards 8 41.0 2-3/4
5 4 PRINCE OF PORTY TT B Avdulla · D J Hall 7 22.0 2-3/4
6 12 TOGEPI B/TT L Hewitson · W K Mo 4 19.0 3
7 9 GOLDEN SAMURAI B2/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 25.0 4-1/4
8 7 STREET CONQUEROR TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 9 17.0 4-1/4
9 10 BEAUTY CHAMP H/XB/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte 6 82.0 4-3/4
10 3 LUCKY ARCHANGEL B/XB M F Poon · F C Lor 12 74.0 6-1/2
11 1 BON'S A PEARLA B Z Purton · P C Ng 10 8.1 8-3/4
12 11 ONLY U B1/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 11 154.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WATCH BUDDY2. RAGING BLIZZARD+0.2L3. SUGAR SUGAR+1.75L4. ARMOUR EAGLE+2.75L5. PRINCE OF PORTY+2.75L6. TOGEPI+3L7. GOLDEN SAMURAI+4.25L8. STREET CONQUEROR+4.25L9. BEAUTY CHAMP+4.75L10. LUCKY ARCHANGEL+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick RAGING BLIZZARD (37.5%) finished 2nd — the winner WATCH BUDDY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 RAGING BLIZZARD 37.5% 2.67 2
2 8 WATCH BUDDY 17.0% 5.90 1
3 1 BON'S A PEARLA 11.0% 9.12 11
4 6 SUGAR SUGAR 5.8% 17.30 3
5 12 TOGEPI 5.8% 17.31 6
6 9 GOLDEN SAMURAI 4.9% 20.48 7
7 2 ARMOUR EAGLE 4.5% 22.16 4
8 7 STREET CONQUEROR 4.3% 23.43 8
9 4 PRINCE OF PORTY 4.0% 25.10 5
10 3 LUCKY ARCHANGEL 2.7% 37.19 10
11 10 BEAUTY CHAMP 1.9% 51.65 9
12 11 ONLY U 0.8% 128.05 12
RAGING BLIZZARDWATCH BUDDY — wonBON'S A PEARLASUGAR SUGARTOGEPIGOLDEN SAMURAIARMOUR EAGLESTREET CONQUERORPRINCE OF PORTYLUCKY ARCHANGELBEAUTY CHAMPONLY U

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 75.5

PLACE

5 11.5

6 20.5

8 18

QUINELLA

5,8 53.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 26.5

5,8 25.5

6,8 58.5

FORECAST

8,5 173

TIERCE

8,5,6 579

TRIO

5,6,8 84

FIRST 4

2,5,6,8 522

QUARTET

8,5,6,2 8,375

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

3/12/5 109

3/12/8 1,517

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,12/5,6,8 3,274

7TH DOUBLE

12/5 10.5

12/8 198.5

SIX UP

5,11/2,9/2,7/3,4/4,12/5,8 2,544

11/9/7/3/12/8 45,687

2 [K Teetan]

1 [C Fownes]