Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2024-01-17 · 13:15

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-17 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. WIN WIN FIGHTER, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with DRAGON STAR second and ATOMIC BEAUTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.40.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 WIN WIN FIGHTER Closed strongly B 1.40.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 4.2 N
2 2 DRAGON STAR V/XB K Teetan · P C Ng 9 9.5 N
3 9 ATOMIC BEAUTY B/TT K H Chan · A S Cruz 3 5.8 3/4
4 4 SATIRICAL GLORY Led early H Z Purton · D A Hayes 8 4.9 1
5 5 STURDY RUBY Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · K L Man 4 6.4 2-1/4
6 12 SUPERB MOVE B/TT Y L Chung · C H Yip 11 11.0 2-3/4
7 6 V LOVE YOU TT H Bentley · C S Shum 7 144.0 3-1/4
8 11 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly B/XB M Chadwick · M Newnham 6 24.0 5-3/4
9 1 INVINCIBLE MISSILE B2/TT L Hewitson · C Fownes 2 10.0 6-1/4
10 8 AROMATICA Closed strongly TT K C Leung · W Y So 10 23.0 8-1/4
11 3 GOLDEN LINK M F Poon · P F Yiu 12 36.0 8-1/4
12 10 DRAGON PRIDE V A Hamelin · T P Yung 1 21.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WIN WIN FIGHTER2. DRAGON STAR+0.05L3. ATOMIC BEAUTY+0.75L4. SATIRICAL GLORY+1L5. STURDY RUBY+2.25L6. SUPERB MOVE+2.75L7. V LOVE YOU+3.25L8. RIGHT HONOURABLE+5.75L9. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+6.25L10. AROMATICA+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick DRAGON STAR (19.7%) finished 2nd — the winner WIN WIN FIGHTER was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 DRAGON STAR 19.7% 5.07 2
2 4 SATIRICAL GLORY 16.0% 6.25 4
3 9 ATOMIC BEAUTY 15.7% 6.36 3
4 5 STURDY RUBY 13.7% 7.30 5
5 7 WIN WIN FIGHTER 11.9% 8.41 1
6 12 SUPERB MOVE 5.1% 19.59 6
7 11 RIGHT HONOURABLE 4.5% 22.45 8
8 1 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 4.1% 24.33 9
9 3 GOLDEN LINK 3.2% 31.26 11
10 10 DRAGON PRIDE 2.9% 34.64 12
11 8 AROMATICA 2.9% 34.69 10
12 6 V LOVE YOU 0.3% 291.20 7
DRAGON STARSATIRICAL GLORYATOMIC BEAUTYSTURDY RUBYWIN WIN FIGHTER — wonSUPERB MOVERIGHT HONOURABLEINVINCIBLE MISSILEGOLDEN LINKDRAGON PRIDEAROMATICAV LOVE YOU

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 42.5

PLACE

2 31.5

7 18

9 23.5

QUINELLA

2,7 219.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 73

2,9 106.5

7,9 60.5

FORECAST

7,2 415

TIERCE

7,2,9 2,510

TRIO

2,7,9 453

FIRST 4

2,4,7,9 334

QUARTET

7,2,9,4 7,100

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

11/9/2 347

11/9/7 787

4TH DOUBLE

9/2 51

9/7 105