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Sha Tin · 2024-01-24 · 11:20

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1800m 11 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-24 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. BLISSFUL STAR, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by K H Ting, won by SH, with WINNING STEPS second and RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.49.89
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 BLISSFUL STAR Closed strongly B/TT 1.49.89 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · K H Ting 4 3.7 SH
2 6 WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC H Bentley · P C Ng 5 5.5 SH
3 8 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB L Hewitson · C W Chang 3 9.3 1-1/2
4 3 AMAZING TEENS Closed strongly H/P2/TT A Atzeni · J Size 1 5.2 3
5 10 SPLENDID STAR Closed strongly TT K Teetan · D J Whyte 7 40.0 3-1/2
6 4 HARRY'S HERO Closed strongly H/XB H Bowman · P F Yiu 2 5.6 3-3/4
7 1 KIMBERLEY B-/PC2/TT Z Purton · J Richards 10 8.8 4
8 9 READY PLAYER ONE Closed strongly B-/XB/PC1/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 8 25.0 5
9 2 SAMARKAND CP/TT Y L Chung · D A Hayes 11 15.0 5-1/4
10 7 PAKISTAN FRIEND Led early TT M Chadwick · W Y So 6 32.0 8-1/2
11 11 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR CP/XB M F Poon · D J Hall 9 69.0 13-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BLISSFUL STAR2. WINNING STEPS+0.1L3. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+1.5L4. AMAZING TEENS+3L5. SPLENDID STAR+3.5L6. HARRY'S HERO+3.75L7. KIMBERLEY+4L8. READY PLAYER ONE+5L9. SAMARKAND+5.25L10. PAKISTAN FRIEND+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick HARRY'S HERO (15.5%) finished 6th — the winner BLISSFUL STAR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 HARRY'S HERO 15.5% 6.47 6
2 2 SAMARKAND 15.2% 6.59 9
3 5 BLISSFUL STAR 12.6% 7.96 1
4 8 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 11.4% 8.79 3
5 3 AMAZING TEENS 10.5% 9.51 4
6 1 KIMBERLEY 10.0% 9.98 7
7 10 SPLENDID STAR 7.6% 13.24 5
8 6 WINNING STEPS 6.1% 16.28 2
9 7 PAKISTAN FRIEND 6.0% 16.54 10
10 11 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR 2.8% 36.15 11
11 9 READY PLAYER ONE 2.4% 42.29 8
HARRY'S HEROSAMARKANDBLISSFUL STAR — wonRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINEAMAZING TEENSKIMBERLEYSPLENDID STARWINNING STEPSPAKISTAN FRIENDYEE CHEONG WARRIORREADY PLAYER ONE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 37

PLACE

5 14

6 20.5

8 22

QUINELLA

5,6 128

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 47

5,8 52

6,8 74.5

FORECAST

5,6 201

TIERCE

5,6,8 1,119

TRIO

5,6,8 258

FIRST 4

3,5,6,8 197

QUARTET

5,6,8,3 4,365