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Sha Tin · 2024-01-24 · 12:30

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-24 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. G LINER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by J Richards, won by 3/4, with MISSION BRAVO second and VIVA HUNTER third. The winner led throughout. The 3.3 favourite LUCKY BANNER finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.39.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 G LINER Wire to wire H/XB/P1/TT 1.39.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · J Richards 4 14.0 3/4
2 4 MISSION BRAVO Closed strongly B L Ferraris · M Newnham 13 11.0 3/4
3 1 VIVA HUNTER Closed strongly TT E C W Wong · K L Man 6 8.1 1-1/4
4 3 LUCKY BANNER H/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 3 3.3 2
5 10 NOBLE WIN Closed strongly E/XB Z Purton · J Size 12 4.7 3-1/2
6 7 WINNING SEVEN XB/B1/TT B Avdulla · D J Whyte 1 80.0 5-3/4
7 13 KASI FARASI B-/P1 A Badel · C H Yip 7 31.0 7-1/4
8 8 THE CONCENTRATION M F Poon · P F Yiu 8 102.0 8-1/2
9 14 YOUNG HORIZON H2 M Chadwick · D A Hayes 5 9.1 10-1/2
10 9 LEGION OF MERIT B/TT L Hewitson · W Y So 2 6.6 12-1/4
11 2 GOODBAN BANBANBANG Closed strongly XB-/H/P1 K De Melo · C W Chang 14 178.0 12-1/2
12 11 FORTUNE PRESIDENT M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 10 36.0 13
13 6 SMILING COLLECTOR V-/XB H Bentley · K H Ting 11 15.0 13-1/4
14 5 LUCKY CHEVALIERS K C Leung · K L Man 9 129.0 29-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. G LINER2. MISSION BRAVO+0.75L3. VIVA HUNTER+1.25L4. LUCKY BANNER+2L5. NOBLE WIN+3.5L6. WINNING SEVEN+5.75L7. KASI FARASI+7.25L8. THE CONCENTRATION+8.5L9. YOUNG HORIZON+10.5L10. LEGION OF MERIT+12.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LUCKY BANNER (19.1%) finished 4th — the winner G LINER was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 LUCKY BANNER 19.1% 5.24 4
2 10 NOBLE WIN 16.5% 6.04 5
3 9 LEGION OF MERIT 9.8% 10.17 10
4 4 MISSION BRAVO 9.7% 10.30 2
5 14 YOUNG HORIZON 7.9% 12.73 9
6 12 G LINER 7.8% 12.81 1
7 13 KASI FARASI 7.7% 13.07 7
8 1 VIVA HUNTER 5.2% 19.39 3
9 6 SMILING COLLECTOR 5.1% 19.48 13
10 2 GOODBAN BANBANBANG 2.8% 35.22 11
11 5 LUCKY CHEVALIERS 2.5% 39.42 14
12 11 FORTUNE PRESIDENT 2.4% 42.34 12
13 7 WINNING SEVEN 2.1% 47.36 6
14 8 THE CONCENTRATION 1.4% 73.40 8
LUCKY BANNERNOBLE WINLEGION OF MERITMISSION BRAVOYOUNG HORIZONG LINER — wonKASI FARASIVIVA HUNTERSMILING COLLECTORGOODBAN BANBANBANGLUCKY CHEVALIERSFORTUNE PRESIDENTWINNING SEVENTHE CONCENTRATION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 140.5

PLACE

1 28

4 35.5

12 36.5

QUINELLA

4,12 690.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 165

1,12 160.5

4,12 208.5

FORECAST

12,4 1,328

TIERCE

12,4,1 17,999

TRIO

1,4,12 2,431

FIRST 4

1,3,4,12 1,309

QUARTET

12,4,1,3 48,086

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/4 138.5

2/12 1,397