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Sha Tin · 2024-01-24 · 12:50

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-24 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. CHIRON, ridden by K C Leung and trained by D A Hayes, won by 3/4, with CHARMING STEED second and ASIAN ONE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite PRECISION GOAL finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.39.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 CHIRON Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · D A Hayes 7 18.0 3/4
2 9 CHARMING STEED Closed strongly E/V/XB/TT A Badel · C Fownes 10 33.0 3/4
3 3 ASIAN ONE Closed strongly V-/XB/PC2/TT A Atzeni · J Richards 1 10.0 1-1/4
4 2 STARSHIP EIGHTY Closed strongly PC/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 11 4.9 1-1/2
5 7 BAEBAE TSOI CP/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 9 66.0 3-1/2
6 8 PRECISION GOAL Led early TT H Bowman · T P Yung 14 4.0 3-3/4
7 4 GO GO GO Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · W Y So 6 10.0 4-3/4
8 6 UNITED ENDEAVORS H/TT Y L Chung · W Y So 3 6.2 5-1/4
9 14 COMPULSORY Closed strongly B M Chadwick · C W Chang 8 46.0 6
10 10 SUPER JOY Closed strongly B/XB/TT Z Purton · W K Mo 12 7.5 6
11 5 REGENCY HAPPY STAR Closed strongly CP/H/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz 13 42.0 7-1/2
12 1 BIG TWO SR/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 5 26.0 7-3/4
13 11 DEVIL AND GOLD V1 E C W Wong · C H Yip 4 13.0 12
14 12 SHENZHOU TWELVE H M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 2 133.0 48-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHIRON2. CHARMING STEED+0.75L3. ASIAN ONE+1.25L4. STARSHIP EIGHTY+1.5L5. BAEBAE TSOI+3.5L6. PRECISION GOAL+3.75L7. GO GO GO+4.75L8. UNITED ENDEAVORS+5.25L9. COMPULSORY+6L10. SUPER JOY+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick PRECISION GOAL (17.2%) finished 6th — the winner CHIRON was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 PRECISION GOAL 17.2% 5.82 6
2 10 SUPER JOY 16.4% 6.10 10
3 2 STARSHIP EIGHTY 16.2% 6.17 4
4 6 UNITED ENDEAVORS 9.9% 10.14 8
5 3 ASIAN ONE 6.3% 15.90 3
6 4 GO GO GO 6.0% 16.80 7
7 13 CHIRON 5.2% 19.25 1
8 9 CHARMING STEED 4.8% 20.65 2
9 11 DEVIL AND GOLD 4.8% 20.99 13
10 1 BIG TWO 4.6% 21.64 12
11 5 REGENCY HAPPY STAR 3.0% 32.95 11
12 14 COMPULSORY 2.6% 38.05 9
13 7 BAEBAE TSOI 2.1% 47.41 5
14 12 SHENZHOU TWELVE 0.9% 106.93 14
PRECISION GOALSUPER JOYSTARSHIP EIGHTYUNITED ENDEAVORSASIAN ONEGO GO GOCHIRON — wonCHARMING STEEDDEVIL AND GOLDBIG TWOREGENCY HAPPY STARCOMPULSORYBAEBAE TSOISHENZHOU TWELVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 185.5

PLACE

3 23

9 90

13 49

QUINELLA

9,13 2,544

QUINELLA PLACE

3,9 482

3,13 210.5

9,13 633.5

FORECAST

13,9 5,413

TIERCE

13,9,3 44,371

TRIO

3,9,13 6,714

FIRST 4

2,3,9,13 8,123

QUARTET

13,9,3,2 227,287

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,12/3,9,13 527,805

3RD DOUBLE

12/9 556.5

12/13 1,761