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Sha Tin · 2024-01-24 · 13:20

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-24 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SKY FOREVER, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by K L Man, won by 2, with COOL BLUE second and DIAMOND SOARS third. The 5.6 favourite REGENT GLORY finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.09.01
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SKY FOREVER B/TT 1.09.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · K L Man 11 13.0 2
2 12 COOL BLUE B-/V1/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 4 6.3 2
3 9 DIAMOND SOARS TT Y L Chung · P F Yiu 7 14.0 3-1/2
4 5 ROBOT KNIGHT L Ferraris · T P Yung 8 50.0 3-1/2
5 10 ACA POWER CP E C W Wong · D J Hall 12 6.5 4
6 1 FLYING DRAGON XB H Bowman · C H Yip 5 5.7 4-1/2
7 8 REGENT GLORY B1 K C Leung · D A Hayes 6 5.6 5-1/2
8 6 SHANGHAI STYLE B1/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 3 13.0 7-1/2
9 3 EVERYONE'S VICTORY H/TT H Bentley · F C Lor 9 10.0 8
10 4 COLOURFUL PRINCE SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 2 6.2 9
11 7 SHINING FORTUNE PC/XB A Atzeni · J Size 10 37.0 13
12 11 RED MAVERICK P1/TT M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 1 52.0 13-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SKY FOREVER2. COOL BLUE+2L3. DIAMOND SOARS+3.5L4. ROBOT KNIGHT+3.5L5. ACA POWER+4L6. FLYING DRAGON+4.5L7. REGENT GLORY+5.5L8. SHANGHAI STYLE+7.5L9. EVERYONE'S VICTORY+8L10. COLOURFUL PRINCE+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick FLYING DRAGON (19.0%) finished 6th — the winner SKY FOREVER was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 FLYING DRAGON 19.0% 5.27 6
2 12 COOL BLUE 18.9% 5.29 2
3 4 COLOURFUL PRINCE 13.2% 7.58 10
4 9 DIAMOND SOARS 11.6% 8.60 3
5 8 REGENT GLORY 9.7% 10.35 7
6 10 ACA POWER 7.4% 13.60 5
7 5 ROBOT KNIGHT 5.6% 17.86 4
8 3 EVERYONE'S VICTORY 4.0% 24.82 9
9 2 SKY FOREVER 3.4% 29.21 1
10 6 SHANGHAI STYLE 3.2% 31.32 8
11 7 SHINING FORTUNE 3.1% 31.78 11
12 11 RED MAVERICK 0.9% 111.07 12
FLYING DRAGONCOOL BLUECOLOURFUL PRINCEDIAMOND SOARSREGENT GLORYACA POWERROBOT KNIGHTEVERYONE'S VICTORYSKY FOREVER — wonSHANGHAI STYLESHINING FORTUNERED MAVERICK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 133.5

PLACE

2 46.5

9 43

12 23

QUINELLA

2,12 445

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 361.5

2,12 142.5

9,12 146.5

FORECAST

2,12 1,017

TIERCE

2,12,9 17,548

TRIO

2,9,12 2,253

FIRST 4

2,5,9,12 23,902

QUARTET

2,12,9,5 492,076

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

12/13/2 40,048

12/13/12 1,959

4TH DOUBLE

13/2 2,761.5

13/12 145