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Sha Tin · 2024-01-24 · 14:20

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-24 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. MAGNIAC, ridden by H Bowman and trained by J Richards, won by 2, with SMOKEY BEAR second and CAPITAL DELIGHT third. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 MAGNIAC V/TT 1.08.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · J Richards 2 3.6 2
2 6 SMOKEY BEAR B/XB/TT K De Melo · C W Chang 5 14.0 2
3 2 CAPITAL DELIGHT TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 4.3 2-3/4
4 11 SPORTS LEGEND CP-/TT M L Yeung · C S Shum 9 23.0 2-3/4
5 7 TORONADO PHANTOM P/TT A Atzeni · J Size 10 14.0 3
6 9 MARK THE MOMENT V/TT L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 12 11.0 4
7 12 SAVVY CHIC CP-/B1/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 1 39.0 5-1/2
8 4 FIERY DIAMOND V1 E C W Wong · T P Yung 8 14.0 6-1/4
9 8 GOOD BUDDY B/TT A Badel · D J Hall 11 9.0 6-1/4
10 10 LADY'S CHOICE H/V K C Leung · C W Chang 4 7.3 8-1/4
11 5 ALL IS GOOD B L Ferraris · K W Lui 3 41.0 13-1/4
12 1 CAMPIONE B-/V1/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 7 14.0 13-1/4
0 MONTA FRUTTA M Chadwick · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MAGNIAC2. SMOKEY BEAR+2L3. CAPITAL DELIGHT+2.75L4. SPORTS LEGEND+2.75L5. TORONADO PHANTOM+3L6. MARK THE MOMENT+4L7. SAVVY CHIC+5.5L8. FIERY DIAMOND+6.25L9. GOOD BUDDY+6.25L10. LADY'S CHOICE+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CAPITAL DELIGHT (16.9%) finished 3rd — the winner MAGNIAC was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 CAPITAL DELIGHT 16.9% 5.91 3
2 10 LADY'S CHOICE 15.6% 6.43 10
3 3 MAGNIAC 13.0% 7.72 1
4 6 SMOKEY BEAR 9.6% 10.38 2
5 7 TORONADO PHANTOM 8.4% 11.84 5
6 4 FIERY DIAMOND 7.3% 13.61 8
7 8 GOOD BUDDY 7.2% 13.84 9
8 1 CAMPIONE 6.9% 14.43 12
9 9 MARK THE MOMENT 6.7% 14.88 6
10 12 SAVVY CHIC 4.6% 21.84 7
11 5 ALL IS GOOD 2.6% 38.44 11
12 11 SPORTS LEGEND 1.1% 91.83 4
CAPITAL DELIGHTLADY'S CHOICEMAGNIAC — wonSMOKEY BEARTORONADO PHANTOMFIERY DIAMONDGOOD BUDDYCAMPIONEMARK THE MOMENTSAVVY CHICALL IS GOODSPORTS LEGEND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 36.5

PLACE

2 16

3 16

6 44.5

QUINELLA

3,6 276.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 35

2,6 82

3,6 101

FORECAST

3,6 420

TIERCE

3,6,2 1,313

TRIO

2,3,6 184

FIRST 4

2,3,6,11 1,905

QUARTET

3,6,2,11 27,894

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

12/3 1,705

12/6 527