Sha Tin · 2024-01-24 · 11:50

Race 2

Class 2 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 8 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-24 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with ALACRITY second and MR ASCENDENCY third. The winner led throughout. The 2.3 favourite CHANCHENG PRINCE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.40.10

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Wire to wire B 1.40.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · F C Lor	Y L Chung	F C Lor	2	126 lb	8.2	3/4
2	6	ALACRITY B-/XB/PC1/TT K Teetan · J Richards	K Teetan	J Richards	7	124 lb	4.4	3/4
3	5	MR ASCENDENCY TT H Bentley · P F Yiu	H Bentley	P F Yiu	1	125 lb	8.2	1-3/4
4	1	CHANCHENG PRINCE XB/TT H Bowman · K W Lui	H Bowman	K W Lui	5	133 lb	2.3	1-3/4
5	4	FIND MY LOVE Closed strongly H/TT M L Yeung · K L Man	M L Yeung	K L Man	4	126 lb	13.0	3-3/4
6	3	APACHE PASS PC-/XB/B1 C Y Ho · P C Ng	C Y Ho	P C Ng	6	127 lb	7.1	4-1/2
7	7	BERLIN TANGO B/H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz	M F Poon	A S Cruz	3	122 lb	14.0	5
8	8	NEARLY FINE TT L Hewitson · C Fownes	L Hewitson	C Fownes	8	120 lb	32.0	7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick ALACRITY (27.8%) finished 2nd — the winner ALL FOR ST PAUL'S was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	6	ALACRITY	27.8%	3.60	2	4.4
2	1	CHANCHENG PRINCE	19.7%	5.07	4	2.3
3	3	APACHE PASS	17.3%	5.80	6	7.1
4	5	MR ASCENDENCY	8.4%	11.91	3	8.2
5	8	NEARLY FINE	7.3%	13.73	8	32.0
6	7	BERLIN TANGO	6.8%	14.71	7	14.0
7	2	ALL FOR ST PAUL'S	6.8%	14.81	1	8.2
8	4	FIND MY LOVE	6.0%	16.67	5	13.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 82

PLACE

2 27.5

5 21

6 16

QUINELLA

2,6 198.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 95

2,6 56

5,6 51

FORECAST

2,6 385

TIERCE

2,6,5 3,099

TRIO

2,5,6 398

FIRST 4

1,2,5,6 180

QUARTET

2,6,5,1 8,115

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

5/2 346

5/6 39

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,6,8/2,5,6 16,331

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