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Sha Tin · 2024-01-24 · 13:50

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-24 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. STRIVE FOR GLORY, ridden by K De Melo and trained by W Y So, won by 1, with SPEEDY SMARTIE second and SOLID SHALAA third. The 3.4 favourite DIAMOND FLARE finished 12th.

Result

Official · 1.08.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT 1.08.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · W Y So 10 40.0 1
2 8 SPEEDY SMARTIE TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 6 7.7 1
3 5 SOLID SHALAA B2/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 2 9.9 2-3/4
4 7 MAYHEM H A Atzeni · F C Lor 3 7.5 3-1/4
5 11 VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte 12 54.0 3-1/2
6 1 JOLLY COMPANION XB E C W Wong · K L Man 1 15.0 4-3/4
7 9 JOYFUL LIFE CP/TT1 K C Leung · P F Yiu 11 5.7 5
8 10 NISHIKADO B-/P2 M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 9 25.0 5
9 4 JUDY'S GREAT TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 4 9.1 5-3/4
10 3 TOP TOP TEA V1/TT H Bowman · C H Yip 7 11.0 6-1/4
11 2 MAGIC SUPREME B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 5 25.0 11-3/4
12 6 DIAMOND FLARE B L Ferraris · M Newnham 8 3.4 14-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STRIVE FOR GLORY2. SPEEDY SMARTIE+1L3. SOLID SHALAA+2.75L4. MAYHEM+3.25L5. VALIANT ELEGANCE+3.5L6. JOLLY COMPANION+4.75L7. JOYFUL LIFE+5L8. NISHIKADO+5L9. JUDY'S GREAT+5.75L10. TOP TOP TEA+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick DIAMOND FLARE (16.5%) finished 12th — the winner STRIVE FOR GLORY was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 DIAMOND FLARE 16.5% 6.06 12
2 5 SOLID SHALAA 15.1% 6.61 3
3 3 TOP TOP TEA 13.0% 7.69 10
4 7 MAYHEM 9.2% 10.85 4
5 4 JUDY'S GREAT 7.7% 13.07 9
6 8 SPEEDY SMARTIE 6.6% 15.06 2
7 10 NISHIKADO 6.6% 15.16 8
8 2 MAGIC SUPREME 6.3% 15.85 11
9 1 JOLLY COMPANION 6.3% 15.86 6
10 12 STRIVE FOR GLORY 5.2% 19.41 1
11 9 JOYFUL LIFE 4.9% 20.51 7
12 11 VALIANT ELEGANCE 2.6% 38.24 5
DIAMOND FLARESOLID SHALAATOP TOP TEAMAYHEMJUDY'S GREATSPEEDY SMARTIENISHIKADOMAGIC SUPREMEJOLLY COMPANIONSTRIVE FOR GLORY — wonJOYFUL LIFEVALIANT ELEGANCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 400

PLACE

5 28

8 26.5

12 80

QUINELLA

8,12 1,233.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 133

5,12 409.5

8,12 357

FORECAST

12,8 3,337

TIERCE

12,8,5 34,329

TRIO

5,8,12 3,616

FIRST 4

5,7,8,12 6,271

QUARTET

12,8,5,7 239,088

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,9,12/5,8,12 1,350,718

5TH DOUBLE

2/8 272

2/12 4,883

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,9,13/2,9,12/Any Combination 121,329