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Sha Tin · 2024-01-24 · 14:55

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 13 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-24 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SO WE JOY, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by C W Chang, won by 1-3/4, with ADEFILL second and YELLOWFIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite FRANTANCK finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.38.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 SO WE JOY Closed strongly H/TT 1.38.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · C W Chang 11 23.0 1-3/4
2 4 ADEFILL Closed strongly B H Bowman · P F Yiu 3 4.5 1-3/4
3 2 YELLOWFIN Led early XB L Hewitson · K W Lui 8 6.7 1-3/4
4 5 PERFECT TEAM Closed strongly H/P/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 7 14.0 2-1/4
5 10 FRANTANCK K Teetan · P C Ng 4 2.3 2-1/2
6 3 OUTGATE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 13 28.0 4
7 7 SELF IMPROVEMENT B/TT K C Leung · K L Man 10 19.0 4
8 14 SEIZING THE MOMENT Closed strongly B-/PC2 A Hamelin · J Size 14 41.0 4-1/4
9 11 ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE CP-/B1/TT M F Poon · D A Hayes 2 103.0 8-3/4
10 12 NORDIC STAR Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 9 12.0 9-3/4
11 6 LOYAL BABY H/TT B Avdulla · W K Mo 1 102.0 11-1/2
12 1 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT V/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 72.0 25-1/4
13 13 MIGHTY ARMOUR PC/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 12 145.0 27-1/2
8 ROMANTIC CHARM V/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 5 13.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SO WE JOY2. ADEFILL+1.75L3. YELLOWFIN+1.75L4. PERFECT TEAM+2.25L5. FRANTANCK+2.5L6. OUTGATE+4L7. SELF IMPROVEMENT+4L8. SEIZING THE MOMENT+4.25L9. ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE+8.75L10. NORDIC STAR+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick FRANTANCK (26.3%) finished 5th — the winner SO WE JOY was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 FRANTANCK 26.3% 3.80 5
2 4 ADEFILL 19.8% 5.06 2
3 2 YELLOWFIN 13.7% 7.28 3
4 12 NORDIC STAR 10.5% 9.49 10
5 5 PERFECT TEAM 6.9% 14.49 4
6 7 SELF IMPROVEMENT 5.5% 18.20 7
7 3 OUTGATE 4.1% 24.11 6
8 9 SO WE JOY 3.5% 28.58 1
9 1 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT 3.0% 33.08 12
10 14 SEIZING THE MOMENT 2.7% 37.22 8
11 6 LOYAL BABY 1.7% 58.87 11
12 11 ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE 1.7% 59.79 9
13 13 MIGHTY ARMOUR 0.5% 200.94 13
FRANTANCKADEFILLYELLOWFINNORDIC STARPERFECT TEAMSELF IMPROVEMENTOUTGATESO WE JOY — wonEVERYONE'S DELIGHTSEIZING THE MOMENTLOYAL BABYABSOLUTE SUNSHINEMIGHTY ARMOUR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 231.5

PLACE

2 22

4 14.5

9 52

QUINELLA

4,9 403.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 46

2,9 222

4,9 120.5

FORECAST

9,4 1,224

TIERCE

9,4,2 7,422

TRIO

2,4,9 761

FIRST 4

2,4,5,9 1,359

QUARTET

9,4,2,5 44,307

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

12/3/4 2,005

12/3/9 40,005

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,6/2,4,9 19,457

7TH DOUBLE

3/4 28

3/9 971.5

SIX UP

4,12/9,13/2,12/8,12/3,6/4,9 404,840

3 [K Teetan]

1 [J Richards]