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Sha Tin · 2024-01-28 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1600m Course A+3 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.36.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SMART BEAUTY Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.36.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz 13 10.0 N
2 0 DIAMOND DIAMOND Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 2 9.9 N
3 0 CHARMANDER Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · J Richards 11 5.7 N
4 0 BROTHER PEARL Closed strongly L Ferraris · C H Yip 10 16.0 3/4
5 0 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM Closed strongly H/TT M F Poon · Y S Tsui 3 18.0 1-1/4
6 0 STAR OF GLORY B A Atzeni · C W Chang 14 30.0 2
7 0 STARSHIP EIGHTY Closed strongly PC/TT A Badel · P C Ng 8 10.0 2-3/4
8 0 ANGELS HUNTER B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 6 6.5 4-1/2
9 0 FASTPASS B/SR/XB K De Melo · K W Lui 12 38.0 7-3/4
10 0 HAPPY HUNK Led early H-/CP1/TT K C Leung · K L Man 7 89.0 10-1/4
11 0 GENERAL WINNER V-/XB-/CP2/TT A Hamelin · W Y So 1 10.0 12-1/4
12 0 EAGLE RUN CP-/SR-/XB1/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte 4 34.0 15-3/4
13 0 BRILLIANT PIONEER PC/TT H Bentley · P F Yiu 9 15.0 16-3/4
— 0 ONE HEART ONE CP/XB/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes 5 4.7 —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-28 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. SMART BEAUTY, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with DIAMOND DIAMOND second and CHARMANDER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.7 favourite ONE HEART ONE did not finish.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SMART BEAUTY—2. DIAMOND DIAMOND+0.05L3. CHARMANDER+0.05L4. BROTHER PEARL+0.75L5. ARTHUR'S KINGDOM+1.25L6. STAR OF GLORY+2L7. STARSHIP EIGHTY+2.75L8. ANGELS HUNTER+4.5L9. FASTPASS+7.75L10. HAPPY HUNK+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick STARSHIP EIGHTY (21.3%) finished 7th — the winner SMART BEAUTY was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 STARSHIP EIGHTY 21.3% 4.70 7
2 0 CHARMANDER 18.3% 5.45 3
3 0 ANGELS HUNTER 13.5% 7.38 8
4 0 SMART BEAUTY 7.2% 13.84 1
5 0 DIAMOND DIAMOND 5.8% 17.11 2
6 0 BRILLIANT PIONEER 5.5% 18.22 13
7 0 EAGLE RUN 5.1% 19.68 12
8 0 GENERAL WINNER 4.6% 21.68 11
9 0 STAR OF GLORY 4.5% 22.32 6
10 0 BROTHER PEARL 4.0% 24.77 4
11 0 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 4.0% 24.84 5
12 0 FASTPASS 3.6% 27.81 9
13 0 HAPPY HUNK 2.4% 40.85 10
STARSHIP EIGHTYCHARMANDERANGELS HUNTERSMART BEAUTY — wonDIAMOND DIAMONDBRILLIANT PIONEEREAGLE RUNGENERAL WINNERSTAR OF GLORYBROTHER PEARLARTHUR'S KINGDOMFASTPASSHAPPY HUNK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 100.5

PLACE

2 32.5

5 25.5

14 30.5

QUINELLA

2,14 508

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 118.5

2,14 166.5

5,14 114

FORECAST

14,2 965

TIERCE

14,2,5 7,670

TRIO

2,5,14 1,148

FIRST 4

2,5,10,14 2,907

QUARTET

14,2,5,10 59,586

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

2/2 59

2/14 444

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,9/2,5,14 946,191