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Sha Tin · 2024-01-28 · 07:45

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-28 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CHAMPION INSTINCT, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by D J Hall, won by 3/4, with PATCH OF THETA second and SUPER LEGENDS third. The 3.1 favourite SUPER LEGENDS finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.53
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 CHAMPION INSTINCT B 1.09.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · D J Hall 4 6.6 3/4
2 7 PATCH OF THETA H/XB K De Melo · K W Lui 10 7.4 3/4
3 2 SUPER LEGENDS B/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 6 3.1 3-1/2
4 11 NEW POWER H M L Yeung · C W Chang 5 44.0 3-3/4
5 3 HAPPY FAT CAT CP-/TT E C W Wong · W K Mo 8 40.0 4
6 6 TELECOM DRAGON TT H Bowman · C H Yip 9 5.5 4-1/4
7 8 RUBY SAILING TT B Avdulla · K L Man 3 9.6 4-3/4
8 12 HINOKAMI KAGURA B/TT H Bentley · J Richards 1 70.0 4-3/4
9 10 CRAZY TREASURE L Ferraris · M Newnham 12 96.0 5
10 4 MULTISUPER B-/CP2 J Melham · P F Yiu 13 12.0 5-1/4
11 9 THE KHAN H1/P1/TT1 K Teetan · C Fownes 11 23.0 5-1/2
12 14 MORE RICE B L Hewitson · T P Yung 14 44.0 5-1/2
13 1 FAST BUCK PC Z Purton · J Size 2 10.0 8-1/4
14 5 YOUTH POWER H K C Leung · D A Hayes 7 91.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHAMPION INSTINCT2. PATCH OF THETA+0.75L3. SUPER LEGENDS+3.5L4. NEW POWER+3.75L5. HAPPY FAT CAT+4L6. TELECOM DRAGON+4.25L7. RUBY SAILING+4.75L8. HINOKAMI KAGURA+4.75L9. CRAZY TREASURE+5L10. MULTISUPER+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick FAST BUCK (19.4%) finished 13th — the winner CHAMPION INSTINCT was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 FAST BUCK 19.4% 5.16 13
2 6 TELECOM DRAGON 16.5% 6.04 6
3 2 SUPER LEGENDS 11.5% 8.72 3
4 13 CHAMPION INSTINCT 11.0% 9.08 1
5 7 PATCH OF THETA 9.4% 10.68 2
6 4 MULTISUPER 8.1% 12.39 10
7 8 RUBY SAILING 7.4% 13.45 7
8 9 THE KHAN 6.7% 14.99 11
9 11 NEW POWER 2.6% 37.74 4
10 14 MORE RICE 2.4% 41.05 12
11 3 HAPPY FAT CAT 2.4% 42.50 5
12 10 CRAZY TREASURE 1.1% 91.45 9
13 12 HINOKAMI KAGURA 0.9% 113.19 8
14 5 YOUTH POWER 0.6% 155.01 14
FAST BUCKTELECOM DRAGONSUPER LEGENDSCHAMPION INSTINCT — wonPATCH OF THETAMULTISUPERRUBY SAILINGTHE KHANNEW POWERMORE RICEHAPPY FAT CATCRAZY TREASUREHINOKAMI KAGURAYOUTH POWER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 66

PLACE

2 13.5

7 25

13 21

QUINELLA

7,13 260

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 63

2,13 45.5

7,13 84

FORECAST

13,7 511

TIERCE

13,7,2 1,785

TRIO

2,7,13 243

FIRST 4

2,7,11,13 1,433

QUARTET

13,7,2,11 31,260

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

10,12>3,5/2,7,13 11,858

5TH DOUBLE

3,5/7 45.5

3,5/13 195.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,10,11/10,12>3,5/Any Combination 255,727