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Sha Tin · 2024-01-28 · 09:25

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-28 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. SWEET ENCOUNTER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by SH, with FLAMINGO TRILLION second and STAR MAC third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite FLAMINGO TRILLION finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.35.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SWEET ENCOUNTER Closed strongly 1.35.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 13 4.7 SH
2 11 FLAMINGO TRILLION Led early K C Leung · F C Lor 5 3.2 SH
3 13 STAR MAC Closed strongly CP1 K Teetan · D A Hayes 3 7.9 N
4 3 GOLDEN ARTIE H/XB A Atzeni · P F Yiu 10 11.0 2
5 5 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 6 8.7 2-1/2
6 10 BEAUTY MISSILE PC A Hamelin · F C Lor 8 28.0 4
7 4 BEAUTYVERSE H/B1/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 14 19.0 4
8 8 AESTHETICISM Closed strongly B L Ferraris · P C Ng 7 11.0 4-1/2
9 7 POWERFUL WINGS Closed strongly B J Melham · P F Yiu 1 10.0 5-1/2
10 2 I AM THE BOSS XB/B1 L Hewitson · K W Lui 4 31.0 5-1/2
11 14 NOT A FEW SR/XB M Chadwick · D J Whyte 9 149.0 7-1/4
12 9 I KEEP WINNING C L Chau · T P Yung 11 119.0 7-1/2
13 6 ACCOLADE START TT B Avdulla · C S Shum 2 34.0 7-1/2
14 12 MARADO B A Badel · W Y So 12 53.0 12

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SWEET ENCOUNTER2. FLAMINGO TRILLION+0.1L3. STAR MAC+0.05L4. GOLDEN ARTIE+2L5. FLAGSHIP WARRIOR+2.5L6. BEAUTY MISSILE+4L7. BEAUTYVERSE+4L8. AESTHETICISM+4.5L9. POWERFUL WINGS+5.5L10. I AM THE BOSS+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick FLAGSHIP WARRIOR (13.8%) finished 5th — the winner SWEET ENCOUNTER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR 13.8% 7.23 5
2 1 SWEET ENCOUNTER 12.1% 8.28 1
3 13 STAR MAC 11.9% 8.40 3
4 8 AESTHETICISM 11.5% 8.68 8
5 7 POWERFUL WINGS 9.9% 10.09 9
6 11 FLAMINGO TRILLION 9.8% 10.21 2
7 3 GOLDEN ARTIE 9.5% 10.50 4
8 4 BEAUTYVERSE 7.1% 14.11 7
9 12 MARADO 4.5% 22.09 14
10 10 BEAUTY MISSILE 4.2% 23.63 6
11 2 I AM THE BOSS 2.7% 36.51 10
12 6 ACCOLADE START 1.6% 61.12 13
13 14 NOT A FEW 0.7% 149.67 11
14 9 I KEEP WINNING 0.6% 180.02 12
FLAGSHIP WARRIORSWEET ENCOUNTER — wonSTAR MACAESTHETICISMPOWERFUL WINGSFLAMINGO TRILLIONGOLDEN ARTIEBEAUTYVERSEMARADOBEAUTY MISSILEI AM THE BOSSACCOLADE STARTNOT A FEWI KEEP WINNING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 47

PLACE

1 20

11 15

13 24

QUINELLA

1,11 91

QUINELLA PLACE

1,11 41

1,13 69

11,13 57.5

FORECAST

1,11 200

TIERCE

1,11,13 1,018

TRIO

1,11,13 247

FIRST 4

1,3,11,13 386

QUARTET

1,11,13,3 7,737

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

6/1 1,516

6/11 165