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Sha Tin · 2024-01-28 · 17:23

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course A+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.35.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SWEET ENCOUNTER Closed strongly 1.35.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 13 4.7 SH
2 0 FLAMINGO TRILLION Led early K C Leung · F C Lor 5 3.2 SH
3 0 STAR MAC Closed strongly CP1 K Teetan · D A Hayes 3 7.9 N
4 0 GOLDEN ARTIE H/XB A Atzeni · P F Yiu 10 11.0 2
5 0 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 6 8.7 2-1/2
6 0 BEAUTY MISSILE PC A Hamelin · F C Lor 8 28.0 4
7 0 BEAUTYVERSE H/B1/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 14 19.0 4
8 0 AESTHETICISM Closed strongly B L Ferraris · P C Ng 7 11.0 4-1/2
9 0 POWERFUL WINGS Closed strongly B J Melham · P F Yiu 1 10.0 5-1/2
10 0 I AM THE BOSS XB/B1 L Hewitson · K W Lui 4 31.0 5-1/2
11 0 NOT A FEW SR/XB M Chadwick · D J Whyte 9 149.0 7-1/4
12 0 I KEEP WINNING C L Chau · T P Yung 11 119.0 7-1/2
13 0 ACCOLADE START TT B Avdulla · C S Shum 2 34.0 7-1/2
14 0 MARADO B A Badel · W Y So 12 53.0 12

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-28 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. SWEET ENCOUNTER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by SH, with FLAMINGO TRILLION second and STAR MAC third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite FLAMINGO TRILLION finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SWEET ENCOUNTER—2. FLAMINGO TRILLION+0.1L3. STAR MAC+0.05L4. GOLDEN ARTIE+2L5. FLAGSHIP WARRIOR+2.5L6. BEAUTY MISSILE+4L7. BEAUTYVERSE+4L8. AESTHETICISM+4.5L9. POWERFUL WINGS+5.5L10. I AM THE BOSS+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick FLAGSHIP WARRIOR (13.8%) finished 5th — the winner SWEET ENCOUNTER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR 13.8% 7.23 5
2 0 SWEET ENCOUNTER 12.1% 8.28 1
3 0 STAR MAC 11.9% 8.40 3
4 0 AESTHETICISM 11.5% 8.68 8
5 0 POWERFUL WINGS 9.9% 10.09 9
6 0 FLAMINGO TRILLION 9.8% 10.21 2
7 0 GOLDEN ARTIE 9.5% 10.50 4
8 0 BEAUTYVERSE 7.1% 14.11 7
9 0 MARADO 4.5% 22.09 14
10 0 BEAUTY MISSILE 4.2% 23.63 6
11 0 I AM THE BOSS 2.7% 36.51 10
12 0 ACCOLADE START 1.6% 61.12 13
13 0 NOT A FEW 0.7% 149.67 11
14 0 I KEEP WINNING 0.6% 180.02 12
FLAGSHIP WARRIORSWEET ENCOUNTER — wonSTAR MACAESTHETICISMPOWERFUL WINGSFLAMINGO TRILLIONGOLDEN ARTIEBEAUTYVERSEMARADOBEAUTY MISSILEI AM THE BOSSACCOLADE STARTNOT A FEWI KEEP WINNING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 47

PLACE

1 20

11 15

13 24

QUINELLA

1,11 91

QUINELLA PLACE

1,11 41

1,13 69

11,13 57.5

FORECAST

1,11 200

TIERCE

1,11,13 1,018

TRIO

1,11,13 247

FIRST 4

1,3,11,13 386

QUARTET

1,11,13,3 7,737

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

6/1 1,516

6/11 165