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Sha Tin · 2024-01-28 · 07:15

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course A+3 13 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-28 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. BEATO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/2, with JOYFUL PROSPERITY second and CHILLI BABA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.35.05
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 BEATO Closed strongly B/TT 1.35.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz 7 3.2 1-1/2
2 12 JOYFUL PROSPERITY Closed strongly K C Leung · C W Chang 6 6.0 1-1/2
3 10 CHILLI BABA Closed strongly B-/V1 K Teetan · P F Yiu 13 12.0 3
4 2 FLYING MOJITO Closed strongly XB/TT L Ferraris · D J Hall 5 5.0 3-1/4
5 14 DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly V-/B2 A Badel · T P Yung 4 31.0 3-3/4
6 4 GALLANT CROWN B J Melham · D A Hayes 10 36.0 6-1/4
7 13 HORSE OF GOOD LUCK Led early TT K De Melo · C H Yip 9 14.0 8
8 6 PRINCE ALEX SR/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 1 9.1 9-1/2
9 9 CHATEAU A Atzeni · J Size 14 8.9 11
10 7 ROYAL PRIDE B/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 2 17.0 11-3/4
11 1 BONUS PAL B Y L Chung · P C Ng 11 67.0 12-1/2
12 8 UP AND UP CP1/TT- C L Chau · C S Shum 3 55.0 13-1/4
13 11 GO GO SIXTEEN B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 8 87.0 73
0 OWNERS' PRAISE H Bentley · W Y So
3 BEER PALACE H Bowman · M Newnham

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEATO2. JOYFUL PROSPERITY+1.5L3. CHILLI BABA+3L4. FLYING MOJITO+3.25L5. DRAGON PRIDE+3.75L6. GALLANT CROWN+6.25L7. HORSE OF GOOD LUCK+8L8. PRINCE ALEX+9.5L9. CHATEAU+11L10. ROYAL PRIDE+11.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BEATO (21.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 BEATO 21.9% 4.56 1
2 6 PRINCE ALEX 12.3% 8.15 8
3 7 ROYAL PRIDE 12.3% 8.16 10
4 10 CHILLI BABA 10.3% 9.67 3
5 9 CHATEAU 8.4% 11.86 9
6 2 FLYING MOJITO 7.2% 13.92 4
7 12 JOYFUL PROSPERITY 7.0% 14.21 2
8 13 HORSE OF GOOD LUCK 5.7% 17.43 7
9 4 GALLANT CROWN 5.0% 20.13 6
10 14 DRAGON PRIDE 4.9% 20.24 5
11 11 GO GO SIXTEEN 2.3% 43.72 13
12 8 UP AND UP 2.0% 51.24 12
13 1 BONUS PAL 0.7% 148.59 11
BEATO — wonPRINCE ALEXROYAL PRIDECHILLI BABACHATEAUFLYING MOJITOJOYFUL PROSPERITYHORSE OF GOOD LUCKGALLANT CROWNDRAGON PRIDEGO GO SIXTEENUP AND UPBONUS PAL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 32

PLACE

5 16

10 34.5

12 19.5

QUINELLA

5,12 103

QUINELLA PLACE

5,10 71.5

5,12 45

10,12 119

FORECAST

5,12 177

TIERCE

5,12,10 1,279

TRIO

5,10,12 343

FIRST 4

2,5,10,12 239

QUARTET

5,12,10,2 5,413

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

1/10/3,5 8,928

1/10/12 4,210

4TH DOUBLE

10/3,5 1,000

10/12 326.5