Happy Valley · 2024-01-31 · 18:41
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | GOLDEN FAIRY Closed strongly 2.18.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 6 | 10.0 | N |
| 2 | 0 | HAPPY HERO Closed strongly CP K Teetan · M Newnham | K Teetan | M Newnham | 4 | 12.0 | N |
| 3 | 0 | LOYAL AMBITION B Avdulla · C Fownes | B Avdulla | C Fownes | 8 | 12.0 | N |
| 4 | 0 | DIAMOND WINNER Closed strongly H A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 2 | 4.7 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | FORTUNE TRIPLE Closed strongly M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 10 | 18.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | AI ONE Closed strongly H/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 12 | 27.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | NICE BIRDIE TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 9 | 7.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | PALACE PAL V H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 11 | 4.9 | 3 |
| 9 | 0 | VINCY Closed strongly SR/TT Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 5 | 28.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 0 | JOYFUL CHAMPION B/TT L Hewitson · C W Chang | L Hewitson | C W Chang | 1 | 8.2 | 4 |
| 11 | 0 | GREEN LASER PC/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 3 | 10.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 0 | M M NEBULA Led early CP-/PC1/TT Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 7 | 16.0 | 10-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-31 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. GOLDEN FAIRY, ridden by A Badel and trained by W Y So, won by N, with HAPPY HERO second and LOYAL AMBITION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.7 favourite DIAMOND WINNER finished 4th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | M M NEBULA | 23.0% | 4.35 | 12 |
| 2 | 0 | DIAMOND WINNER | 14.2% | 7.05 | 4 |
| 3 | 0 | HAPPY HERO | 11.4% | 8.80 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | GREEN LASER | 8.9% | 11.25 | 11 |
| 5 | 0 | PALACE PAL | 8.1% | 12.39 | 8 |
| 6 | 0 | NICE BIRDIE | 7.2% | 13.93 | 7 |
| 7 | 0 | JOYFUL CHAMPION | 7.0% | 14.31 | 10 |
| 8 | 0 | GOLDEN FAIRY | 6.2% | 16.12 | 1 |
| 9 | 0 | AI ONE | 4.7% | 21.35 | 6 |
| 10 | 0 | LOYAL AMBITION | 4.3% | 23.02 | 3 |
| 11 | 0 | FORTUNE TRIPLE | 3.2% | 31.03 | 5 |
| 12 | 0 | VINCY | 1.9% | 52.96 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 109
PLACE
6 35.5
9 39.5
12 30
QUINELLA
6,12 623.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,9 200
6,12 179.5
9,12 221.5
FORECAST
12,6 1,183
TIERCE
12,6,9 10,917
TRIO
6,9,12 2,322
FIRST 4
6,8,9,12 2,553
QUARTET
12,6,9,8 66,720