Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2024-01-31 · 00:49

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course A 11 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-31 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SIMPLY MAVERICK, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-3/4, with RED HARE KING second and TURIN MASCOT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.40.05
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 SIMPLY MAVERICK Closed strongly 1.40.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P F Yiu 6 2.0 1-3/4
2 12 RED HARE KING TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz 5 4.8 1-3/4
3 2 TURIN MASCOT Closed strongly PC/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 11 22.0 2
4 7 IVY LEAGUE Closed strongly H-/SR/XB/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte 4 20.0 2-1/4
5 3 WINNING DRAGON B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 10 26.0 4-1/2
6 4 ROMANTIC LAOS Closed strongly H/CP1/TT Z Purton · W K Mo 12 13.0 4-3/4
7 9 SOLID IMPACT CP1 K De Melo · D J Hall 3 12.0 4-3/4
8 1 GALLANT WAKING C L Chau · K W Lui 7 12.0 5-1/2
9 6 LEAN HERO Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes 8 8.3 8
10 5 FASHION LEGEND Led early TT H Bentley · C Fownes 1 46.0 15-3/4
11 11 MAJESTIC SPEED TT M L Yeung · C S Shum 2 67.0 20-1/2
10 THESIS A Badel · F C Lor

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SIMPLY MAVERICK2. RED HARE KING+1.75L3. TURIN MASCOT+2L4. IVY LEAGUE+2.25L5. WINNING DRAGON+4.5L6. ROMANTIC LAOS+4.75L7. SOLID IMPACT+4.75L8. GALLANT WAKING+5.5L9. LEAN HERO+8L10. FASHION LEGEND+15.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SIMPLY MAVERICK (27.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 SIMPLY MAVERICK 27.4% 3.65 1
2 12 RED HARE KING 11.9% 8.38 2
3 6 LEAN HERO 11.0% 9.07 9
4 1 GALLANT WAKING 10.3% 9.69 8
5 9 SOLID IMPACT 10.3% 9.75 7
6 2 TURIN MASCOT 9.3% 10.73 3
7 4 ROMANTIC LAOS 8.3% 12.07 6
8 3 WINNING DRAGON 4.8% 20.70 5
9 7 IVY LEAGUE 4.8% 20.85 4
10 5 FASHION LEGEND 1.3% 75.70 10
11 11 MAJESTIC SPEED 0.5% 212.85 11
SIMPLY MAVERICK — wonRED HARE KINGLEAN HEROGALLANT WAKINGSOLID IMPACTTURIN MASCOTROMANTIC LAOSWINNING DRAGONIVY LEAGUEFASHION LEGENDMAJESTIC SPEED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 20.5

PLACE

2 51.5

8 11

12 18

QUINELLA

8,12 52

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 79

2,12 121

8,12 25

FORECAST

8,12 85

TIERCE

8,12,2 815

TRIO

2,8,12 274

FIRST 4

2,7,8,12 805

QUARTET

8,12,2,7 7,085

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

10/1/8,10 7,798

10/1/12 3,712

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,7,9/2>8,10,12 10,655

8TH DOUBLE

1/8,10 420

1/12 245.5

SIX UP

2,10/2,7/3,12/2,10/1,7/8,10,12 12,181

10/2/3/10/1/8,10 6,410,586

3 [C Fownes]

2 [H Bowman]