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Happy Valley · 2024-01-31 · 00:49

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-31 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TOMODACHI KOKOROE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/2, with BEAUTY WAVES second and RIGHTEOUS ARION third. The 1.8 favourite BEAUTY WAVES finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 TOMODACHI KOKOROE TT 1.09.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D A Hayes 12 11.0 1-1/2
2 7 BEAUTY WAVES SR/XB Z Purton · D J Whyte 3 1.8 1-1/2
3 9 RIGHTEOUS ARION H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 10.0 2-3/4
4 6 A AMERIC TE SPECSO B M F Poon · J Size 8 14.0 2-3/4
5 5 POWER KOEPP E M Chadwick · K L Man 4 41.0 3-1/4
6 4 ARMOUR EAGLE B/XB/TT K C Leung · J Richards 7 21.0 4
7 10 GOLDEN DARCI H-/P1/XB1/TT- K De Melo · D J Hall 1 105.0 4-1/4
8 2 BRAVE STAR XB L Hewitson · K W Lui 5 7.1 4-3/4
9 8 HOSS XB-/B/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 2 36.0 5-1/4
10 3 VIVA CHALEUR TT H Bowman · C Fownes 10 11.0 9-1/2
11 12 SPEED SWORD TT A Badel · F C Lor 9 25.0 11-1/2
12 11 MEGA BONUS V A Hamelin · P F Yiu 6 36.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TOMODACHI KOKOROE2. BEAUTY WAVES+1.5L3. RIGHTEOUS ARION+2.75L4. A AMERIC TE SPECSO+2.75L5. POWER KOEPP+3.25L6. ARMOUR EAGLE+4L7. GOLDEN DARCI+4.25L8. BRAVE STAR+4.75L9. HOSS+5.25L10. VIVA CHALEUR+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BEAUTY WAVES (38.8%) finished 2nd — the winner TOMODACHI KOKOROE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 BEAUTY WAVES 38.8% 2.58 2
2 1 TOMODACHI KOKOROE 9.0% 11.07 1
3 2 BRAVE STAR 8.3% 12.10 8
4 9 RIGHTEOUS ARION 8.0% 12.57 3
5 3 VIVA CHALEUR 7.2% 13.88 10
6 8 HOSS 7.0% 14.25 9
7 6 A AMERIC TE SPECSO 5.1% 19.45 4
8 4 ARMOUR EAGLE 4.5% 22.05 6
9 12 SPEED SWORD 4.2% 23.65 11
10 11 MEGA BONUS 4.0% 25.14 12
11 5 POWER KOEPP 2.7% 36.67 5
12 10 GOLDEN DARCI 1.1% 87.64 7
BEAUTY WAVESTOMODACHI KOKOROE — wonBRAVE STARRIGHTEOUS ARIONVIVA CHALEURHOSSA AMERIC TE SPECSOARMOUR EAGLESPEED SWORDMEGA BONUSPOWER KOEPPGOLDEN DARCI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 111.5

PLACE

1 29.5

7 10.5

9 26.5

QUINELLA

1,7 118.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 49

1,9 148

7,9 39.5

FORECAST

1,7 379

TIERCE

1,7,9 2,031

TRIO

1,7,9 314

FIRST 4

1,6,7,9 688

QUARTET

1,7,9,6 20,629

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

10/1 2,116.5

10/7 34.5